IBERIAN DAILY 03 FEBRUARY + 4Q’25 RESULTS. PREVIEWS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)
NEWS SUMMARY: AEDAS HOMES, INDRA, MELIÁ, UNICAJA, TELEFÓNICA.At the end of today’s report, and during the entire results season, we will include a presentation with positive and negative results highlights and previews for the 4Q’25 results to be released over the coming days in Spain.
Ibex hits 18,000 points
European stock markets saw an increasing performance, with the Ibex leading gains again, climbing more than +1.0% where the volatility of metals continued after the election of K. Warsh as Fed chair. In the STOXX 600, all sectors with the exception of Real Estate and Energy ended with gains, led by Travel&Leisure and Food. On the macro side, in the euro zone, January’s final manufacturing PMI was raised one tenth to 49.5. In Germany, December’s retail sales climbed above expectations. In the US January’s manufacturing ISM rose more than expected to Aug’22 highs, mainly fuelled by new orders, employment and production. The final manufacturing PMI also came in above expectations. From the Fed, Bostic stated that he does not expect any rate cuts in 2026, given the strong economy. In tariff matters, D. Trump reduced tariffs on India to 18% (from 50%) in exchange for the country’s pledge to stop buying Russian oil and buy more from the US. He also stated that Congress is close to reaching an agreement to end the shutdown. In US business results, Walt Disney and Palantir beat expectations, Tyson Foods was in line.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with gains near 0.5% following the strong session in Asia. Currently, S&P futures are up +0.3% (the S&P 500 ended unchanged vs. the European closing bell). Asian markets are climbing (China’s CSI 300 +1.14%, Japan’s Nikkei +3.90% and South Korea’s Kospi +6.8%).
Today in Spain we will learn the number of unemployed, in the US JOLTs job openings and in Brazil December’s industrial output. In 4Q’25 US business results, Paypal, PepsiCo and Pfizer, among others, will release their earnings.
COMPANY NEWS
UNICAJA. 4Q’25 Results and 2026/2027 guidance. UNDERWEIGHT
4Q’25 Results came in above expectations in revenues, sightly below in costs and in legal provisions (+60% vs. expectations), leaving Net Profit -11% below forecasts. ROTE remains at 9.8% seen in 3Q’25 and CET1 came in at 16% vs. 16.1% in 3Q’25. The cash payout rose from 60% to 70% already in 2025 although it cut the buyback payout from 25% to 15% from 2026. The bank unveiled its guidance with few surprises: NII’26 above 2025 levels (vs. +0% BS(e) and +1% consensus), low single digit growth in fee revenues (vs. +2% BS(e) and +3% consensus), mid-single digit cost growth (vs. +4% BS(e) and +5% consensus), COR 2025 levels (vs. -3% BS(e) and +2% consensus). We expect a slightly negative market reaction (limited) due to the lack of surprises in the guidance and mainly after its +22% performance in the past 3 months (vs. +19% sector).
Aedas Homes is engaged in the housing development business in Spain. The company has a portfolio of approximately 1.5 million square meters of land that it develops for residential purpose. Co. develops multifamily homes for the housing market in Madrid, Catalonia, Levante and Majorca, Costa del Sol and Seville.
Indra Sistemas is engaged in the design, development, manufacture, assembly, repair, and installation of computer software and applications. Through its subsidiaries, Co. is engaged in consulting, graphic design and multimedia, web design and marketing, internet development and electronic trade, systems integration and hosting geared business to business and business to consumer, as well as in internet financing and electronic marketing. Co. serves defense and security, transport and traffic, energy and industry, telecom and media, finance and insurance, and public administration and healthcare markets. Co. operates primarily in Europe, the United States, Canada, and Latin America.
Melia Hotels International is the parent company of a group engaged in the acquisition, management and operation of hotels. Co. operates its hotel network in Germany, Argentina, Brazil, Bulgaria, Cabo Verde, Chile, China, Costa Rica, Croatia, Cuba, Egypt, Spain, United States, France, Greece, Netherlands, Indonesia, Italy, Luxembourg, Malaysia, Mexico, Panama, Peru, Portugal, Puerto Rico, United Kingdom, Dominican Republic, Singapore, Switzerland, Tunisia, Uruguay, Venezuela and Vietnam under the followings brandnames: Paradisus Resorts®, Melia Hotels & Resorts®, TRYP Hoteles® and Sol Hotels & Resorts®.
Telefonica is engaged in the provision of public or private telecommunications services, including ancillary or complementary telecommunications services or related services. Co.'s fixed business includes: traditional fixed telecommunication services, Internet and broadband multimedia services, data and business-aplications services, and wholesale services for telecommunication operators. Co. also provides a range of mobile and related services and products to consumer and business customers, including mobile voice services, value added services, mobile data and Internet services, wholesale services, corporate services, roaming, fixed wireless, and, trunking and paging.
Unicaja Banco SA is a Spain-based financial institution (the Bank) engaged in the banking sector. The Bank offers services to individual and business customers. Its products and services range includes current and savings accounts, debit and credit cards, consumer and commercial loans, real estate credit, securities brokerage, funds management, leasing, factoring, pension plans, life and non-life insurance, international trade financing, money transfer, as well as treasury, among others. The Bank operates a number of branches in Spain and Morocco. The Bank is controlled by Fundacion Bancaria Unicaja.
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