Report
Research Department
EUR 100.00 For Business Accounts Only

IBERIAN DAILY 08 SEPTEMBER (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: AEDAS HOMES, CHANGES IBEX, ELECTRICITY SECTOR, GRIFOLS, INDITEX, SIEMENS GAMESA.

Will the ECB raise rates by 50bps or 75bps?
It was yet another session of caution, with slight gains and hardly any changes in Europe ahead of today’s ECB meeting, where C. Lagarde will announce the interest rate hike. Thus, within the Euro STOXX, Utilities and Chemicals were the best performers, vs. the bigger drops in Retail and Energy. On the macro side, in the Euro zone, the final 2Q’22 GDP was raised by 2bps to 4.1% YoY. In Germany, June’s industrial output fell less than expected. In the US, July’s trade deficit fell in line with expectations and the Fed’s Beige Book showed an economy growing at a pace between modest and not at all, warning of a greater downturn in the future, although it also admits that prices are falling somewhat. Separately, L. Brainard, Fed vice chair, was aggressive in her message on controlling inflation, which would back a +75bps rate hike in September. In Japan, the final 2Q’22 GDP was raised more than expected. On the geopolitical side, Putin has threatened to cut off both Russian gas and oil, and even break the agreement on food out of Ukraine if Europe caps the price of Russian fossil fuels.
What we expect for today
The European stock markets would open with gains, fuelled by the US and Asia. Currently, S&P futures are up +0.15% (the S&P 500 ended up +1.52% after the European closing bell). Volatility in the US dropped (VIX 24.64). Asian markets are rising (China’s CSI 300 +0.1% and Japan’s Nikkei +2.3%).
Today the ECB will hold its meeting. Separately, the United Kingdom will present its plan to tackle the energy crisis. Also, we will learn in the US, the weekly jobless claims. In debt auctions: Germany (€ 1.5 Bn in bonds due 2038).


COMPANY NEWS

CHANGES IBEX 35. Technical Advisory Committee meeting today. We do not expect any changes.
The IBEX Technical Advisory Committee will meet at today’s closing bell for its second annual follow-up meeting (the next one will be in March’23). After the changes made in the June meeting, on this occasion we do not expect any changes on the index, apart from some small weight adjustments.

INDITEX. We expect good 2Q’22 Results but the highlight will be the trading update. BUY.
We expect robust sales in its 2Q’22 results (to be released on 14/09), growing ~+11% on a quarter that would see a decreasing performance (demanding comparable basis and closures/restrictions) with the positive impact of price increases (~+5%). Although the gross margin will be under pressure (-40bps to 56% due to the increase in procurement and exchange rate), we expect an increase in the EBIT margin (~+25bps to 16.2%). Following the recent corrections (-11% in absolute terms in the past month; -7% vs. Ibex35 and +6% vs. sector) due to the doubts surrounding consumption numbers, the market will pay close attention to the trading update (Aug/Sept), where dispersion is significant (+/-5%) and to the confirmation of its guidance (+/-50bps in gross margin), which we expect to be confirmed.
Underlyings
AEDAS Homes SA

Aedas Homes is engaged in the housing development business in Spain. The company has a portfolio of approximately 1.5 million square meters of land that it develops for residential purpose. Co. develops multifamily homes for the housing market in Madrid, Catalonia, Levante and Majorca, Costa del Sol and Seville.

SIEMENS GAMESA (SGRE SM)

Provider
Sabadell
Sabadell

Analysts
Research Department

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