EUR 100.00 For Business Accounts Only

IBERIAN DAILY 09 FEBRUARY + 4Q’21 RESULTS. PREVIEWS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: AEDAS HOMES, FERROVIAL.

At the end of today’s report, and during the entire results season, we will include a presentation with positive and negative results highlights and previews for the 4Q’21 results to be released over the coming days in Spain.

The IBEX ends its negative streak
The Spanish stock market was the best performer in Europe with solid gains in a session lacking big macroeconomic data releases, with Banks being the big winners on a market pushing bond yields upwards. In the Euro STOXX, Basic Materials and Banks were the best performers, with Technology and Consumer Goods posting losses. On the macro side, in Spain December’s industrial output slowed more than expected. In Japan, Toyota announced an additional -500,000 cut to annual vehicle production due to the chip shortage. In US business results, Pfizer and Dupont beat forecasts, while Incyte, Masco and Cysco Corp. came in below expectations.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with gains of more than +0.5%, with growth recovering some ground in view of stable interest rates and oil companies hit slightly by the drop in Brent. Currently, S&P futures are up +0.45% (the S&P 500 was up +0.17% vs. the European closing bell). Volatility in the US fell (VIX 21.44). Asian markets are rising (China’s CSI 300 +0.9% and Japan’s Nikkei +1.08%).
Today there are no noteworthy macro releases, but in Mexico and Brazil we will learn January’s inflation. In US business results, Walt Disney, Motorola and Fox, among others, will release their earnings. In debt auctions: Germany (€ 1.5 Bn in bonds due 2050).

COMPANY NEWS

FERROVIAL. Rate hikes already priced in. BUY.
The stock’s recent rout (-12% in 2022; -10% vs. Eurostoxx Const.&Mat) are, in our opinion, due to the expectations of interest rate hikes in the US, which we think are largely priced in (according to our estimates, FER would have risen +80bps BS(e) vs. the +75/100bps we expect for 2022 BS(e)). Also having an effect is the impact from Omicron, which should decrease starting in 2Q’22 BS(e). We cut our estimates by an average of -0.3% in EBITDA’21-23 and we raise our T.P. to € 30.00/sh. (+24% upside; +11% vs. previous T.P.) after rolling over our model to 2022 and improving our valuation of the I-66 highway (+8% on the T.P.), which we adjust to the implicit value of the latest transaction. BUY.

AEDAS. Good results, especially in pre-sales, but somewhat below expectations in margins. BUY.
The results showed a good performance in commercial activity, although sales and margins came in somewhat below our expectations, which could be due to the higher weight of BtR on the delivery mix. Sales: € 404 M (+46% vs. +48% BS(e) vs. +48% consensus); EBITDA: € 73 M (+54% vs. +84% BS(e) vs. +77% consensus). In any case, AEDAS reiterates its guidance for the full year (closing in March 2022): €>750 M of sales and €>140 M of EBITDA. Commercial activity continues to perform well. Pre-sales totalled 721 units BtS (700 BS(e)), meaning that the pre-sales backlog covers 97% of deliveries of the year 2021-22, 71% of 2022-23 and 32% of 2023-24, which we believe is positive, as it provides visibility.