IBERIAN DAILY 13 FEBRUARY + 4Q’24 RESULTS. PREVIEWS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)
NEWS SUMMARY: AEDAS HOMES, AENA, TALGO.At the end of today’s report, and during the entire results season, we will include a presentation with positive and negative results highlights and previews for the 4Q’24 results to be released over the coming days in Spain.
Surprisingly high inflation data in US
Europe managed to weather the poor US inflation data and continued with another bullish session, once again led by the IBEX, which reached 12,900 points. In the STOXX 600, most sectors posted gains, led by Retail and Banks (+15.6% on the year), with Real Estate, Utilities and Household Goods falling the most. On the macro side, in the US January’s general and core inflation rose more than expected to 3.0% YoY and 3.3% YoY, respectively, leading the market to push back the Fed’s first rate cut to Dec’25. In US business results, Heinz, Biogen and Cisco (guidance upgraded) beat expectations.
What we expect for today
The Euro STOXX 50 would open with gains of up to +1.0%, underpinned by Trump’s proposals to end the war in Ukraine. Currently, S&P futures are up +0.25% (the S&P 500 ended flat vs. the European closing bell). Asian markets are rising (China’s CSI 300 +0.23% and Japan’s Nikkei +1.3%).
Today in the UK we will learn the 4Q’24 GDP, in the euro zone December’s industrial output, in the US weekly jobless claims and January’s production prices and in Brazil January’s retail sales. In US business results, Zoetis, Global Payments, Palo Alto, Motorola and Airbnb, among others, will release their earnings.
COMPANY NEWS
AEDAS HOMES. 9M’24 Trading update. UNDERWEIGHT
The company has released its trading update through December’24, with sales totalling € 485 M (+9.1% vs. +11.4% BS(e)) and EBITDA € 53 M (+21.8% vs. +13.6% BS(e)). Deliveries came in at 1,351 units (1,437 BS(e)) and pre-sales at 2,089 units (vs. 2,132 units BS(e)). The 3Q’24/25 figures are not representative for what we expect for the whole year, which will have a clear bias on the last quarter (ending in March’25). The company reiterated its guidelines on residential development revenues although it warned that the effects from DANA floods could lead to some delay in deliveries in this area. We do not foresee any market impact from these results.
AENA. ~+1.5% in airlines capacity for the summer’25. T.P. € 222.00/sh. and we downgrade our recommendation to UNDERWEIGHT.
Despite the good data released on traffic in January (~+6% vs. Jan’24) and on airlines’ capacity planning for the summer’25 (+1.5% vs. summer’24 and +6.5% vs. seats actually operated), we downgrade our recommendation to UNDERWEIGHT following the positive share price performance seen since 2024 lows (+6% vs. IBEX and +33% vs. ADP), given that we believe that the risk/reward equation is no longer that appealing and we should assume a +6% CAGR’23/26 in passengers (vs. +4% BS(e) and +3% CAGR’17/24) and a 63% EBITDA margin over the period (vs. 61% BS(e) and vs. 61.5% in 2019) to obtain >+10% upside, which we believe is demanding.
Aedas Homes is engaged in the housing development business in Spain. The company has a portfolio of approximately 1.5 million square meters of land that it develops for residential purpose. Co. develops multifamily homes for the housing market in Madrid, Catalonia, Levante and Majorca, Costa del Sol and Seville.
Aena SME SA, formerly Aena SA, is a Spain-based company primarily engaged in the airports operation. Its activities are divided into four segments: Airports, which comprises Aeronautical subdivision, responsible for the management of airports, jetways, security, handling, cargo and fuel services, among others, as well as Commercial subdivision, including duty-free and specialty stores, restaurant services, car rental, as well as banking services and advertising; Services outside the terminal, which manages real estate assets, such as parking lots, warehouses and lands; International, which comprises operations of Company's subsidiary, Aena Desarrollo Internacional SA, that invests in other airport owners principally in Mexico, Colombia and the United Kingdom; and Others, encompassing corporate activities. It manages tourism, hub and regional airports, as well as heliports and general aviation areas. Furthermore, its destination range comprises Europe, the Americas, Asia and Africa.
Talgo is engaged in designing, manufacturing, repairing and maintaining the railway rolling stock, as well as the manufacturing, assembling, repairing and maintaining the engines, machinery and parts of the railway systems. Co. has an industrial presence in seven countries: Spain, Germany, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Russia, Saudi Arabia and U.S.A. Co. has an active fleet in Europe, Asia and North America that comprises of 94 high-speed trains and more than 1,400 Talgo tilting passenger cars. Also, Co. purchases, redesigns, constructs, leases and sells all types of real estate.
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