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IBERIAN DAILY 29 JANUARY + 4Q’25 RESULTS. PREVIEWS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: AEDAS HOMES, NATURGY, NEINOR HOMES.

At the end of today’s report, and during the entire results season, we will include a presentation with positive and negative results highlights and previews for the 4Q’25 results to be released over the coming days in Spain.

Luxury drags down European markets
European stock markets fell after the poor reception of LVMH’s results and before J. Powell’s appearance before the Fed, which brought no big surprises. In the STOXX 600, Real Estate and Energy led the gains, while Consumer Goods and Pharma ended with the biggest corrections. On the macro side, in the US the Fed meeting kept interest rates in the range of 3.50-3.75%, as expected, with a somewhat more hawkish statement that is readying the market to maintain rates at this level in the medium term. In geopolitics, Secretary of State M. Rubio admitted advances in Venezuela, though warning that new military actions will be taken if the Chavista Government does not keep its pledges. Separately, Trump urged Iran to negotiate a new nuclear agreement, warning of stronger military actions. In Brazil, the Central Bank kept rates at 15%, leaving the door open to more flexibility starting in March if activity slows and inflation continues to drop. In US business results, AT&T beat expectations, MSCI was in line and Starbucks and PPG released disappointing results. At the closing bell, Meta and Microsoft released earnings that beat expectations, while Tesla was more in line.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with gains, led by Basic Resources after gold and silver hit new record highs. Currently, S&P futures are up +0.21% (the S&P 500 ended flat vs. the European closing bell). Asian markets are rising (China’s CSI 300 +0.75%, Japan’s Nikkei +0.25% and South Korea’s Kospi +0.98%).
Today in Spain we will learn December’s retail sales, in the euro zone December’s M3 and in the US weekly jobless claims, November’s trade balance and factory orders. In 4Q’25 US business results, Nasdaq, Caterpillar, Blackstone, Mastercard, Visa and Apple, among others, will release their earnings.


COMPANY NEWS

AEDAS/HOMES NEINOR HOMES. CNMV authorises mandatory TOB
The CNMV’s Board has given green light to Neinor’s mandatory TOB for AEDAS (“the second TOB”). Thus, the Spanish stock market watchdog considers that the price is fair. Note that Neinor is offering € 24.00/sh. in cash to 20.80% of AEDAS’s shares not held. The acceptance period will last from 30/01 to 27/02, both inclusive. This news does not come as a surprise, as Neinor is raising the price originally paid to the majority shareholder, which is unusual in Spain. We recommend AEDAS’s shareholders to accept Neinor’s TOB.