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IBERIAN DAILY 30 SEPTEMBER (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: AEDAS HOMES, NEINOR HOMES, ROVI.

Stock markets continue to climb despite uncertainties
European stock markets saw slight gains, with all eyes on the risk of a US shutdown (that could start on 01/10, the first day of 2026 fiscal year) and the Fed’s rate cut pattern. Thus, in the STOXX 600, the best-performing sectors were Basic Resources and Consumer Goods whereas Energy (Brent crude slid around -3.0% yesterday) and Banks suffered the biggest drops. On the macro side, in Spain, September’s inflation speeded up to 2.9% (below expectations), whereas the core data slowed down one tenth to 2.3%. In the euro zone, September’s economic confidence index climbed unexpectedly. In the US, August’s pending home sales rose more than expected. From the Fed J. Powell suggested that the market could expect 2 additional rate cuts this year but this is not certain. On another note, B. Hammack (without vote) bet on a restrictive monetary policy to cool inflation whereas A. Musalem was open to new cuts with caution and J. Williams backed September’s cut due to the lower inflationary risks. On the trade front, D. Trump announced 100% tariffs on wood imports due to national security and threatened with 100% tariffs on films carried out outside the country. In Mexico, August’s unemployment rate remained at 2.6% seen the previous month. In Japan, August’s industrial output slowed down more than expected whereas August’s retail sales deteriorated unexpectedly. In China, the manufacturing activity slowed down for the sixth consecutive month in September according to the manufacturing PMI whereas September’s non-manufacturing PMI fell more than expected. On the geopolitical front, D. Trump proposed a new 20-point peace plan to end the war in Gaza but it is unlikely to be successful despite the support of Israel’s PMI B. Netanyahu.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with losses following the poor data out of China. Currently, S&P futures are down -0.08% (yesterday the S&P 500 ended down -0.16% vs. the European closing bell). Asian markets are rising (China’s CSI 300 +0.4% and Japan’s Nikkei +0.1%).
Today in Germany we will learn September’s number of unemployed, September’s preliminary inflation and August’s retail sales, in the Uk the 2Q’25 GDP and in the US September’s Conference Board consumer confidence, September’s Chicago PMI and August’s job vacancies (JOLTS) and in Brazil August’s unemployment rate.