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INFORME DIARIO 07 MAYO (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

COMPAÑÍAS QUE APARECEN EN EL INFORME. ESPAÑA: AENA, ARCELORMITTAL, FERROVIAL, NEINOR, SACYR, TALGO, TELEFONICA. EUROPA: AB INBEV, DEUTSCHE TELEKOM, MUNICH RE.

Los datos macro apagan la continuidad del rebote
Recogida de beneficios en la mayoría de las bolsas europeas ante los malos datos macro publicados. En el Euro STOXX Energía y Viajes&Ocio fueron los que más cayeron mientras que Farma y Servicios Financieros fueron los sectores con mejor comportamiento relativo. Por el lado macro, en la Eurozona, el PMI de servicios final de abril se revisó ligeramente al alza hasta 12 lo que sería acorde con una contracción del PIB cercana al -11% interanual mientras que las ventas al por menor de marzo retrocedieron más de lo esperado. La Comisión Europea prevé que el PIB de la Eurozona caiga un -7,7%, mientras que el PIB español retrocedería un -9,4% (vs -8,0% el FMI), con la tasa de paro incrementándose hasta el 18,9%. En Alemania los pedidos de fábrica cayeron más de lo previsto. En España el PMI de servicios desaceleró más de lo esperado hasta 9,2 vs 26,7 anterior lo que sería acorde con una caída del -14% del PIB y el Gobierno logra extender el estado de alarma hasta el 23 de mayo. En EE.UU. el empleo privado ADP de abril cayó menos de lo esperado. En China las exportaciones de abril repuntaron inesperadamente mientras que las importaciones se contrajeron más de lo esperado y el PMI de servicios de Caixin se recuperó menos de lo previsto en abril. En Rdos.Empresariales EE.UU. General Motors, T-Mobile y Discovery mejor, Global Payments, West Management y KKR & Co en línea y Wendy’s peor.
Qué esperamos para hoy
Cabe esperar una apertura mixta. En estos momentos, los futuros del S&P cotizan con subidas del +0,75% (el S&P 500 cerró con caídas del -1,00% respecto al precio al que cotizaba al cierre de los mercados en Europa). La volatilidad en EE.UU. subió (VIX 34,12%). Los mercados asiáticos cotizan mixtos (Japón +0,22% y Hong Kong -0,76%).
Hoy en Alemania y Francia la producción Industrial de marzo. En R. Unido reunión del BoE. En México la inflación de abril. En EE.UU. el paro semanal y el coste laboral unitario del primer trimestre. En Rdos Empresariales de EE.UU. Allergan, Scientific Games, Hilton y Booking entre otros. En subastas: España (7.500 M euros en Bonos vto. 2023, 2025, 2027, I/L 2033 y 2050) y Francia (11.500 M euros en Bonos vto. 2028, 2029, 2050 y 2060).


ESPAÑA

ARCELOR MITTAL: Rdos. 1T’20 mejores y reducen necesidades de caja. COMPRAR
Rdos. mejores de lo esperado por el consenso, aunque por debajo vs BS (EBITDA 967 M euros; -41,5% vs -33,5% BS(e) y -47,5% consenso). Sobre perspectivas, prevén -25%/-30% de volumen en 2T’20 vs 1T'20 (-35%/-40% vs 2T'20) y un EBITDA de 400/600 M dólares (BS(e) en la parte baja), permitiendo un EBITDA de 1.400/1.600 M en 1S'20, que haría factible los ~3.200 M para 2020 de consenso. Además reducen sus necesidades de caja en 1.000 M hasta los 3.500 M y prevén mejora de circulante, lo que haría que aun en este escenario negativo no destruya caja. Tras el duro castigo desde máximos (-40%; -10% vs IBEX), la visibilidad operativa aportada y la solidez financiera, creemos que serán suficientes para que el valor reaccione favorablemente.

TALGO. Rdos. 1T’20 mejores aunque cancela programa de recompra (6,5% capital pendiente). COMPRAR.
Publicó al cierre Rdos. 1T’20 flojos aunque mejores de lo esperado tanto en ventas (+30% vs 1T’19; +19,7% BS(e) y +23,3% consenso) como en EBITDA (-5,0% vs 1T’19; -29,2% BS(e) y -8,4% consenso). No obstante, termina anticipadamente su programa de recompra de acciones (alcanza un 9,5% del capital vs 16% inicial y procede a amortizar un 7% del mismo), lo que tendría un impacto limitado en nuestro P.O. (
Underlyings
Aena SME SA

Aena SME SA, formerly Aena SA, is a Spain-based company primarily engaged in the airports operation. Its activities are divided into four segments: Airports, which comprises Aeronautical subdivision, responsible for the management of airports, jetways, security, handling, cargo and fuel services, among others, as well as Commercial subdivision, including duty-free and specialty stores, restaurant services, car rental, as well as banking services and advertising; Services outside the terminal, which manages real estate assets, such as parking lots, warehouses and lands; International, which comprises operations of Company's subsidiary, Aena Desarrollo Internacional SA, that invests in other airport owners principally in Mexico, Colombia and the United Kingdom; and Others, encompassing corporate activities. It manages tourism, hub and regional airports, as well as heliports and general aviation areas. Furthermore, its destination range comprises Europe, the Americas, Asia and Africa.

Anheuser-Busch InBev N.V. ADS

ArcelorMittal

Deutsche Telekom AG

Deutsche Telekom is engaged in the telecommunications services and information technology sectors. Co. operates as an integrated telecommunications provider. It is organized into four operating segments: Germany, Europe, and the United States; and Systems Solutions, as well as Group Headquarters and Shared Services. Co. provides fixed-network lines, broadband lines and mobile communications. Co. also provides customized Information and Communication Technology (ICT) solutions for corporate customers under the T-Systems brand. The Group Headquarters and Shared Services segment comprises cross-segment management functions, real estate services, and mobility solutions, among others.

Ferrovial S.A.

Ferrovial is a transportation company based in Spain. Co. is engaged in operations in the transportation sector. Co. specializes in the design, construction, management, administration and maintenance of transport infrastructures. Co.'s services range also includes the maintenance of parking lots, and land-, sea- and air-based transport networks. Co. is also engaged in the promotion and operation of short-stay parking lots, parking regulation and management services and promotion and sale of residents' parking.

Munich Reinsurance Company

Muenchener Rueckversicherungs-Gesellschaft is engaged in reinsurance, primary insurance and asset management. Co.'s international life business is written in the Life Division. The Global Clients and North America division manages accounts with international insurance groups. The Europe and Latin America division manages property-casualty business in Europe, Latin America and the Caribbean. The Germany, Asia Pacific and Africa division conducts property-casualty business in Germany, Africa, Asia, Australia and the Pacific Islands. The Special and Financial Risks division manages the classes of credit, aviation and space, agriculture, enterprise and contingency risks.

Neinor Homes SA

Neinor Homes SA, formerly Neinor Homes SLU, is a Spain-based company engaged in the real estate sector. The Company focuses on the design, construction and promotion of residential properties. It develops housing projects in various Spanish cities, such as Malaga, Madrid, Barcelona, Cordoba, Vizcaya, Alicante, Almeria and Gerona.

Sacyr S.A.

Sacyr is the parent company of a group engaged in the acquisition, development and construction of urban properties for their subsequent rental or resale. Co. primarily leases and sells office buildings and complexes, housing units, and shopping centers. Co. is also engaged in the operation of urban car parking facilities. Co. offers services related to the real estate industry such as technical assistance in energy savings, inventory management, architectural design, telecommunications management, property maintenance, as well as gardening and landscaping. Co. also provides consulting services in the real estate fund management sector.

Talgo SA

Talgo is engaged in designing, manufacturing, repairing and maintaining the railway rolling stock, as well as the manufacturing, assembling, repairing and maintaining the engines, machinery and parts of the railway systems. Co. has an industrial presence in seven countries: Spain, Germany, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Russia, Saudi Arabia and U.S.A. Co. has an active fleet in Europe, Asia and North America that comprises of 94 high-speed trains and more than 1,400 Talgo tilting passenger cars. Also, Co. purchases, redesigns, constructs, leases and sells all types of real estate.

Telefonica SA

Telefonica is engaged in the provision of public or private telecommunications services, including ancillary or complementary telecommunications services or related services. Co.'s fixed business includes: traditional fixed telecommunication services, Internet and broadband multimedia services, data and business-aplications services, and wholesale services for telecommunication operators. Co. also provides a range of mobile and related services and products to consumer and business customers, including mobile voice services, value added services, mobile data and Internet services, wholesale services, corporate services, roaming, fixed wireless, and, trunking and paging.

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Sabadell
Sabadell

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Research Department

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