AENA: WINGLESS; CHANGE OF RECOMMENDATION TO SELL (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)
The pandemic will lead to a slow recovery. We change our recommendation to SELL.The Covid-19 situation leads us to lower our expectations and assume that traffic is unlikely to return to 2019 levels before the second half of the decade (in 2020 it fell by -73% vs. 2019), which will drag down the Aeronautical business (48% EBITDA) and, to a lesser extent, the Commercial business (43% EBITDA), and we now expect a CAGR’19-24e of -8.6% in EBITDA (vs. -3% previously). Bearing this in mind, we cut our T.P. to € 136.50/sh. (-8.4% previously) and change our recommendation to SELL in view of the lack of a positive newsflow and a low upside potential (+4%) following the stock’s sharp rally since March 2020 lows (+6,4% vs. IBEX and +8% vs. the sector). Thus, although we do not see a risk on the liquidity level and the company’s assets are high quality, we believe that the lack of dividend payments in the short-term (vs. 3.4% yield BS(e) previously) would reduce the stock’s appeal.
Aena SME SA, formerly Aena SA, is a Spain-based company primarily engaged in the airports operation. Its activities are divided into four segments: Airports, which comprises Aeronautical subdivision, responsible for the management of airports, jetways, security, handling, cargo and fuel services, among others, as well as Commercial subdivision, including duty-free and specialty stores, restaurant services, car rental, as well as banking services and advertising; Services outside the terminal, which manages real estate assets, such as parking lots, warehouses and lands; International, which comprises operations of Company's subsidiary, Aena Desarrollo Internacional SA, that invests in other airport owners principally in Mexico, Colombia and the United Kingdom; and Others, encompassing corporate activities. It manages tourism, hub and regional airports, as well as heliports and general aviation areas. Furthermore, its destination range comprises Europe, the Americas, Asia and Africa.
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