IBERIAN DAILY 07 JANUARY (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)
NEWS SUMMARY: AENA, INDRA.Technology and Industry lead the way to start the year
European stock markets have kicked off the year with gains, underpinned by the rally in AI and the rise in defence companies. In the STOXX 600, the best-performing sectors were once again Technology and Industrials (in view of the complicated geopolitical situation), whereas Food and Autos ended with the biggest drops. On the macro side, in Spain the number of unemployed for December fell unexpectedly, and the job market closed 2025 with 506,451 new Social Security registrations. In the US, December’s manufacturing ISM deteriorated unexpectedly, returning to a low since Oct’24. From the Fed, N. Kashkari was satisfied with inflation and risks of a bump in the unemployment rate. In geopolitics, Trump has stated that Venezuela will sell up to 50 million barrels of oil to the US (US$ 2.8 Bn at current market prices) that had been held up by the trade block. Separately, he did not rule out using military force in order to take Greenland, which would signal Denmark’s exit from NATO. Lastly, China announced controls on exports to Japan of goods that could be used for military purposes.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with slight drops after Tuesday’s holiday. Currently, S&P futures are down -0.02% (the S&P 500 ended +0.3% higher vs. the European closing bell). Asian markets are falling (China’s CSI 300 -0.46%, Japan’s Nikkei -1.15%).
Today in Germany we will learn December’s number of unemployed and November’s retail sales, in the euro zone December’s inflation and in the US the non-manufacturing ISM and the ADP private employment survey for December, as well as November’s JOLTS job openings.
COMPANY NEWS
AENA, UNDERWEIGHT
Highlights from the interview with the company’s Chairman, Maurici Lucena: (i) Regarding the 2027-31 framework (DORA III), expected to be approved in Aept’26 by the Spanish Cabinet, Lucena comments that the fees should increase moderately, but less significantly than in 2026 (+6.4% to € 11.02/passenger), which according to the article could be interpreted as an annual growth of between +3% and +5% through 2032. (ii) There are a series of airports that are approaching their limit (Barcelona, Madrid, Alicante, Malaga, etc.), and several simultaneous enlargements are to be expected. (iii) The company will begin DORA III with a level of 1.3x-1.4x NFD/EBITDA, and there is plenty of room to grow in debt to manageable levels while still keeping the payout unchanged at 80%. Lucena added that the wave of investments will last until 2032-36, in DORA IV. (iv) Lucena stated that 2025 (pending the last few adjustments) has ended with at least a +3.9% rise in traffic, which is half a percentage point above initial forecasts. Likewise, he expects the figures not to be as solid in 2026, forecasting a slowdown vs. 2025.
We welcome the Chairman’s optimism towards fees, but until DORA III is approved, we believe it is still too early to talk of an investment plan without defined fees. As regards fees and traffic in the medium term (DORA III), our T.P. is based on flat fee growth for the period, with traffic increasing +3% on average.
As for results performance, it is well known that the numbers are solid: in 3Q’25 the company’s EBITDA beat the consensus by +7.4%. And in traffic, ending 2025 at the levels mentioned in the interview (+3.9%) means maintaining the same growth level reported in 9M’25.
Aena SME SA, formerly Aena SA, is a Spain-based company primarily engaged in the airports operation. Its activities are divided into four segments: Airports, which comprises Aeronautical subdivision, responsible for the management of airports, jetways, security, handling, cargo and fuel services, among others, as well as Commercial subdivision, including duty-free and specialty stores, restaurant services, car rental, as well as banking services and advertising; Services outside the terminal, which manages real estate assets, such as parking lots, warehouses and lands; International, which comprises operations of Company's subsidiary, Aena Desarrollo Internacional SA, that invests in other airport owners principally in Mexico, Colombia and the United Kingdom; and Others, encompassing corporate activities. It manages tourism, hub and regional airports, as well as heliports and general aviation areas. Furthermore, its destination range comprises Europe, the Americas, Asia and Africa.
Indra Sistemas is engaged in the design, development, manufacture, assembly, repair, and installation of computer software and applications. Through its subsidiaries, Co. is engaged in consulting, graphic design and multimedia, web design and marketing, internet development and electronic trade, systems integration and hosting geared business to business and business to consumer, as well as in internet financing and electronic marketing. Co. serves defense and security, transport and traffic, energy and industry, telecom and media, finance and insurance, and public administration and healthcare markets. Co. operates primarily in Europe, the United States, Canada, and Latin America.
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