IBERIAN DAILY 16 SEPTEMBER (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)
NEWS SUMMARY: ACCIONA, AENA, ALMIRALL, MELIÁ, SOLARIA.MARKETS YESTERDAY AND TODAY
China, a source of destabilisation
The European stock markets were impacted by China’s poor macro data. The regulatory risk on the electricity sector also took its toll on the Ibex. Thus, within the Euro STOXX, all sectors except for Basic Resources and Energy ended in the red, with Utilities and Consumer Goods being the worst relative performers. On the macro side, in the Euro zone, July’s industrial output climbed above expectations. In the United Kingdom, inflation rose above expectations in August. Separately, PM B. Johnson initiated a Cabinet reshuffle, demoting his Foreign Secretary. In the US, September’s manufacturing index came in above expectations, but the industrial output slowed more than expected in August. In China, gambling stocks fell sharply after it was known that the Govt. will toughen regulation on Macao casinos. In a new regulatory offensive, the Govt. would have begun to censor/filter economic information circulating through chats and blogs, increasing investor unease.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would see a bearish opening in a session without relevant drivers. Currently, S&P futures are down -0.1% (the S&P 500 ended +0.64% higher vs. its price at the closing bell in Europe). Volatility in the US dropped (VIX 18.18). Asian markets are sliding (China’s CSI -0.6% and Japan’s Nikkei -0.65%).
Today we will learn in the US August’s retail sales, the weekly jobless claims and September’s Philadelphia Fed index. In debt auctions: Spain (€ 5.5 Bn in bonds due 2024, 2026 and 2031) and France (€ 11 Bn in fixed coupon bonds due 2024, 2026, 2027 and I/L bonds due 2026, 2031 and 2041).
COMPANY NEWS
ACCIONA/SOLARIA. Cuts would affect all non-emitting technologies (including wind and solar).
Following the release of the RD on the sector reform in the Spanish Official State Gazette, the regulation provides that all cuts will also affect all non-emitting energies (not only nuclear and hydro) on the Spanish mainland (excluding the islands) with installed power >10MW. In this regard, in addition to ANA, SLR would be also affected, and in fact, since the announcement of the measures (two days ago), the share price see significant corrections (SLR -5% and ANA -1.2% / -7% Acciona Energía). With this in mind, bearing in mind only 3 months of 2021, we now foresee an impact on revenues of around € 96 M in ANA (vs. € 121 M, initial forecast), -3.6%/-7.9% in EBITDA/Net Profit’21e. In SLR we foresee a maximum impact of € 4.75 M or -3.3%/-5.3% in SLR. As this is a one-off, the impact from all the measures on market cap would be -1% on ANA and
Aena SME SA, formerly Aena SA, is a Spain-based company primarily engaged in the airports operation. Its activities are divided into four segments: Airports, which comprises Aeronautical subdivision, responsible for the management of airports, jetways, security, handling, cargo and fuel services, among others, as well as Commercial subdivision, including duty-free and specialty stores, restaurant services, car rental, as well as banking services and advertising; Services outside the terminal, which manages real estate assets, such as parking lots, warehouses and lands; International, which comprises operations of Company's subsidiary, Aena Desarrollo Internacional SA, that invests in other airport owners principally in Mexico, Colombia and the United Kingdom; and Others, encompassing corporate activities. It manages tourism, hub and regional airports, as well as heliports and general aviation areas. Furthermore, its destination range comprises Europe, the Americas, Asia and Africa.
Almirall is engaged in the acquisition, manufacture, storage, sale and mediation in the sale of pharmaceutical specialties and products and all manner of raw materials used to prepare pharmaceutical specialties and products. Also, Co. acquires, manufactures, storages, sales and mediates in the sale of cosmetics, chemical, biotechnological and diagnostic products for human, veterinary, agrochemical and food-industry use, as well as all manner of utensils, complements and accessories for the chemical, pharmaceutical and clinical industries. In addition, Co. is engaged in the acquisition, sale, lease, subdivision and development of land lots, land and properties of all kinds.
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