IBERIAN DAILY 28 FEBRUARY + 4Q’23 RESULTS. HIGHLIGHTS AND REST OF PREVIEWS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)
NEWS SUMMARY: ACCIONA ENERGÍA, AENA, AMADEUS, CAF, ENDESA, FERROVIAL, GLOBAL DOMINION, METROVACESA.At the end of today’s report, and during the entire results season, we will include a presentation with positive and negative results highlights and previews for the 4Q’23 results to be released over the coming days in Spain.
IBEX falls back
European indices were back on the upward track except the IBEX which, penalised by the results campaign, was on the verge of falling below 10,100 points. In the STOXX 600, Basic Materials and Technology posted the biggest gains vs. Media and Household Goods, which ended with the biggest losses. On the macro side, in the euro zone January’s M3 index slowed unexpectedly. In the US, January’s durable goods orders contracted more than expected, although the “core” part rose surprisingly, February’s Conference Board consumer confidence fell unexpectedly and housing prices slowed more than expected in December. From the Fed, J. Schmid (Kansas Fed) pushed to wait for proof that the battle against inflation has been won before lowering rates, whereas M. Bowman left the door open to raising rates if inflation does not continue to approach the target. In US business results, Norwegian Cruise released worse earnings than expected and Pinnacle beat expectations.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with slight drops and will continue to pay close attention to inflation data towards the end of the week. Currently, S&P futures are down -0.10% (the S&P 500 ended +0.22% higher vs. the European closing bell). Asian stock markets are falling (China’s CSI 300 -0.29%, Japan’s Nikkei -0.08%).
Today in the euro zone we will learn February’s economic confidence index, in the US the second reading of the 4Q’23 GDP and in Brazil January’s unemployment rate. In US business results, HP, Salesforce and Paramount, among others, will release their earnings.
COMPANY NEWS
AMADEUS. 4Q’23 Results in line. Guidance’24 slightly below expectations in EBITDA margin. BUY.
4Q’23 Results were in line with expectations in sales (+16% vs. +15% BS(e) and 16% consensus) with the Distribution segment faring worse (hit by the Middle East conflict), although offset by the better performance of IT Solutions; EBITDA was in line with the consensus (+2% vs BS(e)). As for the 2024 guidance, the company foresees 11%/14.5% revenue growth (vs. +12.7% BS(e) and +12.6% consensus), with a stable EBITDA margin (expansion ex cloud expenses) vs. 37.9% in 2023, which is below the consensus (39.3%) and 40% BS(e). These results in line with expectations and the slightly lower EBITDA margin guidance could lead to a negative market reaction (-8% vs. IBEX in 2024).
AENA. 4Q’23 results beating expectations. BUY
4Q’23 revenues improved +26% (+17% vs. BS(e) and +12% vs. consensus) thanks to the better performance in all businesses (Aeronautical +18%; +6% vs. expected; Commercial +27%; +9% vs. consensus). EBITDA reached € 909 M (+63% vs. 4Q’22), beating the consensus by +33% (+44% vs. BS(e)) due to the falling energy costs and the recovery of a provision (+10% vs. consensus adjusting for this). This means an EBITDA margin of 66.7% (55.3% adjusted and vs. 54.1% expected). Net financial debt was flat vs. 2022 (€ 6.22 Bn), meaning a DFN/EBITDA ratio of 2.06x (vs. 2.2x BS(e)). AENA announced a DPS of € 7.66/sh. (+61% vs. 2022; yield 4.4%), around +11% above our estimate. As expected, no forecast for 2024 was given, to be released in the CMD on 07/03. Conference call at 13:00 (CET).
ENDESA. Slightly worse FY2023 results due to one-offs. BUY
The FY2023 results came in below expectations, the consensus, BS(e) and the guidance on the reported level. EBITDA’23 reached € 3.78 Bn (-32% vs. 2022, vs. -26% BS(e), -20% consensus) and reported Net Profit € 742 M (-71% vs. 2022, vs. -64% BS(e) and -49% consensus); slightly better in LfL terms (without the negative one-offs of restructuring cost provisions, the 2023 gas arbitration and exceptional FY2022 results): -18% EBITDA vs. 2022/-60% Net Profit. Solid NFD performance thanks to improved regulatory WC. The unit gas margin fell (€ -2.50/MWh vs. € 6.10/MWh in 2022), whereas the unit liberalised electricity margin improved to € 52/MWh (vs. € 42/MWh previously). ELE reiterated the guidance from its 2024-26 Strategic Plan, where EBITDA’24e would reach € 4.9-5.2 Bn and Net Profit € 1.6-1.7 Bn (in line). We expect a positive reaction.
CAF, BUY
The results beat expectations in sales (+20.9% vs. +17.3% consensus) due to the better contribution from the rolling stock business. Order intake reached € 4.78 Bn on the year (BtB 1.2x). EBIT’23 stood at € 179 M, basically in line with our estimate and the consensus, with a margin of 4.7% (vs. 4.4% in 2022), below our estimates and the consensus (4.8%). CAF has ended the year with better net debt than expected (€ 256 M vs. € 299 M BS(e) and € 305 M consensus) due to working capital, meaning a NFD/EBITDA ratio of 0.9x (vs. 1.2x in 2022), and it has announced a DPS of € 1.11/sh. (+29% vs. 2022, +3.5% yield), above estimates (€ 1.033/sh. BS(e) and € 0.993/sh. consensus).
The company has given a guidance’24: (i) BtB +5% guidance. In terms of cash, NFD fell by € -11 M in 2H’23 to € 75 M (~0.5x NFD/EBITDA vs. 1.3x YE’22 and vs. guidance +5% CAGR’23-26 in sales (vs. +5.8% BS(e)) and >+7% CAGR’23-26 in EBITDA (vs. +6.9% BS(e)).
Results are in line with expectations, and the company keeps its guidance unchanged. We do not foresee a relevant impact from these results following the recent share price performance (3.7% in 2024; +3.6% vs. IBEX). Conference call today at 16:00 (CET).
FERROVIAL, BUY
4Q’23 Results were in line on the operating level (EBITDA € 291 M vs. € 284 M BS(e) and € 291 M consensus), where Toll Roads (75% T.P.) beat expectations once more (EBITDA € 223 M vs. € 213 M BS(e) and 209 M consensus), fuelled by a positive traffic (>+9% in Managed Lanes) and toll rate performance (> +9% vs. 2022). Cash ex infra rose by € +486 M in 4Q’23 up to € 1.12 Bn, above expectations (vs. € 902 M BS(e) and 897 M consensus) thanks to the better working capital performance. The company announced a € 0.75/sh. dividend (+6.5%, 2.1% yield), slightly below the consensus (€ 0.77/sh.).
We expect a positive market reaction despite the recent share price performance (+5% in 2023; +5% vs. IBEX).
METROVACESA, BUY
Results came in above our revenue and EBITDA expectations thanks to higher land sales (€ 84 M vs. € 50 M BS(e)). Sales: € 586.5 M (+13.0% vs. +8.2% BS(e)); EBITDA: € 74.2 M (+62.0% vs. +26.6% BS(e)); Net Profit: € -20.8 M (€ -23.5 M in 2022 vs. € -3.0 M BS(e)).
EBTIDA grew +62%, with the margin rising +390bps due to the operating leverage. Net Profit reported € -21 M of loses due to the variation of the land portfolio value and € -65 M of provisions due to higher negative financial results (€ -25 M).
Pre-sales saw a positive performance :434 units BtS in the 4Q’23 on a standalone basis and 1,836 units in FY2023. Even though this is below the run-rate of around 2,000 units sold annually, the average price is slightly higher (+2%) than that seen last year. The pre-sales coverage is >82% for 2024 and 57% for 2025.
We do not foresee any impact from these results. As for operating cashflow, MVC generated € 132 M vs. the € 100-150 M guidance (vs. € 130 M BS(e)).
Aena SME SA, formerly Aena SA, is a Spain-based company primarily engaged in the airports operation. Its activities are divided into four segments: Airports, which comprises Aeronautical subdivision, responsible for the management of airports, jetways, security, handling, cargo and fuel services, among others, as well as Commercial subdivision, including duty-free and specialty stores, restaurant services, car rental, as well as banking services and advertising; Services outside the terminal, which manages real estate assets, such as parking lots, warehouses and lands; International, which comprises operations of Company's subsidiary, Aena Desarrollo Internacional SA, that invests in other airport owners principally in Mexico, Colombia and the United Kingdom; and Others, encompassing corporate activities. It manages tourism, hub and regional airports, as well as heliports and general aviation areas. Furthermore, its destination range comprises Europe, the Americas, Asia and Africa.
Endesa is engaged in the production, transmission, distribution, and supply of electricity, through hydroelectric, fossil fuel, and nuclear generation. Co. is also engaged in the mining of coal for use in its fossil-fuel electric plants; mining research; land restoration, and environmental monitoring and control.
Ferrovial is a transportation company based in Spain. Co. is engaged in operations in the transportation sector. Co. specializes in the design, construction, management, administration and maintenance of transport infrastructures. Co.'s services range also includes the maintenance of parking lots, and land-, sea- and air-based transport networks. Co. is also engaged in the promotion and operation of short-stay parking lots, parking regulation and management services and promotion and sale of residents' parking.
Global Dominion Access SA is a Spain-based company primarily engaged in the construction and engineering sector. The Company's activities are divided into two segments: Multi-technological Services, which offers design, implementation and maintenance of fixed and mobile telecommunications networks, manages sales and distribution processes for telecommunications carriers, as well as renders of inspection, maintenance, repair and renovation services for industrial and energy firms, and Solutions and EPCs, which executes turnkey Engineering-Procurement-Construction (EPC) projects, provides construction, repair and renovation of industrial heating installations, as well as develops processes and other technological and business solutions in numerous sectors. Its services are provided in three areas: Technology and Telecommunications (T&T), Industry and Renewable energies. It operates worldwide in Europe, the Americas, Asia and Africa. The Company is a subsidiary of CIE Automotive SA.
Metrovacesa SA, formerly Metrovacesa Suelo y Promocion SA, is a Spain-based real estate developer. The Company specializes in construction and sale of sustainable housing, both single-family and multi-family residential properties. Its activities also include promotion, urbanization and parceling of real estate in general, as well as real estate management for own benefit or on behalf of third parties. Its asset portfolio includes more than 6 million square meters of building land across Spain, as well as already developed properties in cities, such as Malaga, Almeria, Cordoba, Barcelona and Madrid, among others.
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