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INFORME DIARIO 09 JULIO (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

COMPAÑÍAS QUE APARECEN EN EL INFORME: ESPAÑA: AENA, CIE AUTOMOTIVE, ENDESA, INDRA, REPSOL, SECTOR BANCARIO, TALGO. EUROPA: AIRBUS, ESSILORLUXOTTICA, UNICREDIT.

Incertidumbre con los aranceles
Jornada de tímidas subidas en las bolsas europeas mientras continúa el baile de fechas en los plazos fijados por D. Trump para cerrar las negociaciones comerciales y el comienzo de los aranceles (nuevo plazo el 1 de agosto). En el STOXX 600 Recursos Básicos y Autos fueron los que más subieron frente a las caídas de Inmobiliario y Hogar (Distribución). Por el lado macro, en EE.UU. el índice de confianza de las Pymes NFIB de junio cayó ligeramente en línea con lo esperado mostrando además un exceso de inventarios. En Brasil las ventas al por menor de mayo repuntaron más de lo previsto. En China la inflación de junio avanzó más de lo esperado mientras que los precios de producción acentuaron su ritmo de contracción más de lo previsto. En materia comercial, D. Trump amenazó con un arancel del 50% al cobre para el 1 de agosto y los medicamentos podrían sufrir un arancel del 200% en el próximo año. En cuanto a la UE se espera un arancel generalizado del 10% pero peor al acuerdo alcanzado por R. Unido en sectores específicos.
Qué esperamos para hoy
Las bolsas abrirían con nuevas subidas del orden del +0,2% con buen comportamiento de las petroleras. En estos momentos, los futuros del S&P 500 cotizan con caídas del -0,11% (el S&P 500 terminó ayer sin cambios con respecto al nivel al que estaba al cierre de las bolsas europeas). Los mercados asiáticos cotizan con subidas (CSI 300 chino +0,29%, Nikkei de Japón +0,33%).
Hoy en EE.UU. las actas de la Fed y en México la inflación de junio.

ESPAÑA

REPSOL. Mal Trading statement 2T’25 tanto por upstream como por industrial. SOBREPONDERAR
Mal Trading statement en 2T’25 por upstream e industrial, a pesar de la mejora vista en algunas variables operativas respecto a 1T’25, como la mayor producción (hasta 557kboe/d en rango alto del guidance, con la aportación de R.Unido) o en el margen de refino (en 5,9 d/b vs 5,3 d/b anterior y 6 d/b guidance escenario central). Decepciona el upstream por la caída del brent (67,9 d/b vs 75,7 d/b a 1T’25 y guidance), el precio del gas HH (en 3,4 d/MBtu vs 3,7 d/MBtu, anterior vs 3 d/MBtu guidance del escenario central) y la depreciación del dólar (-8%). En industrial mala utilización de destilación de refino y de conversión por paradas (programadas) y por el efecto del blackout (c. -80 M euros). Para Rdos. 2T’25 (24-jul) estimamos un BDI 2T’25e ajustado c. 486 M euros (-25% vs 1T’25) que estaría por debajo de consenso (c. -11%). Esperaríamos una lectura negativa de este trading statement a pesar del -11% vs Ibex y el -5% vs sector que acumula en 2025.
Underlyings
Aena SME SA

Aena SME SA, formerly Aena SA, is a Spain-based company primarily engaged in the airports operation. Its activities are divided into four segments: Airports, which comprises Aeronautical subdivision, responsible for the management of airports, jetways, security, handling, cargo and fuel services, among others, as well as Commercial subdivision, including duty-free and specialty stores, restaurant services, car rental, as well as banking services and advertising; Services outside the terminal, which manages real estate assets, such as parking lots, warehouses and lands; International, which comprises operations of Company's subsidiary, Aena Desarrollo Internacional SA, that invests in other airport owners principally in Mexico, Colombia and the United Kingdom; and Others, encompassing corporate activities. It manages tourism, hub and regional airports, as well as heliports and general aviation areas. Furthermore, its destination range comprises Europe, the Americas, Asia and Africa.

Airbus SE

Airbus is an European Aeronautic Defense and Space company whose core business is the manufacturing of commercial aircraft, civil and military helicopters, commercial space launch vehicles, missiles, military aircraft, satellites and defense systems and defense electronics and the rendering of services related to these activities. Co. organizes its businesses into the following five operating divisions: Airbus Commercial, Airbus Military, Eurocopter, Cassidian and Astrium. In addition, Co.'s Other Businesses division engages in the development, manufacturing, marketing and sale of regional turboprop aircraft and aircraft components.

CIE Automotive S.A.

CIE Automotive is the parent company of an industrial group formed by several companies that are engaged in the design, manufacture and sale of automobile component and sub-units on the world market. In addition, Co. is also engaged in the bio-fuels business which is in the initial stages of development and is made up of various companies devoted to the production and distribution of bio-fuels.

EssilorLuxottica SA

Essilor International (Compagnie Generale d'Optique) designs, manufactures and sells ophthalmic lenses, ophthalmic optical instruments and equipment. Co.'s activities are divided into three segments: Lenses and Optical Instruments (Co. designs, manufactures and customizes corrective lenses such as: Varilux (progressive lenses); anti-reflective, smudge-proof and anti-static lenses (Crizal); Nikon lenses, Transitions variable-tint lenses and Kodak lenses under agreements; polarized lenses (Xperio) and fog-proof lenses (Optifog)), Equipment (Co. produces, distributes and sells equipment and consumables used by prescription laboratories) and Readers (Co. designs and sells reading glasses).

Indra Sistemas S.A. Class A

Indra Sistemas is engaged in the design, development, manufacture, assembly, repair, and installation of computer software and applications. Through its subsidiaries, Co. is engaged in consulting, graphic design and multimedia, web design and marketing, internet development and electronic trade, systems integration and hosting geared business to business and business to consumer, as well as in internet financing and electronic marketing. Co. serves defense and security, transport and traffic, energy and industry, telecom and media, finance and insurance, and public administration and healthcare markets. Co. operates primarily in Europe, the United States, Canada, and Latin America.

Repsol SA

Repsol is an oil and gas company. Co. is engaged in all the activities relating to the oil and gas industry, including exploration, development and production of crude oil and natural gas, transportation of oil products, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and natural gas, refining, the production of a wide range of oil products and the retailing of oil products, oil derivatives, petrochemicals, LPG and natural gas, as well as the generation, transportation, distribution and supply of electricity. Co. operates in more than 40 countries. Co.'s operations are divided into four segments: Upstream, Downstream, LNG and Gas Natural Fenosa.

Talgo SA

Talgo is engaged in designing, manufacturing, repairing and maintaining the railway rolling stock, as well as the manufacturing, assembling, repairing and maintaining the engines, machinery and parts of the railway systems. Co. has an industrial presence in seven countries: Spain, Germany, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Russia, Saudi Arabia and U.S.A. Co. has an active fleet in Europe, Asia and North America that comprises of 94 high-speed trains and more than 1,400 Talgo tilting passenger cars. Also, Co. purchases, redesigns, constructs, leases and sells all types of real estate.

UniCredit S.p.A.

Unicredit is a pan-European commercial banking group based in Italy. Co. is engaged in the provision of in-branch and online corporate and investment banking services, providing customers with access to banks in 14 core markets as well as to an another 18 countries worldwide. Co.'s operations are organized along six business lines: Commercial Banking Italy; CEE Division; CIB; Commercial Banking Germany; Commercial Banking Austria; and Asset Gathering. Co.'s European banking network includes Italy, Germany, Austria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Serbia and Turkey.

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