INFORME DIARIO 27 JULIO + RDOS. ESPAÑA Y EUROPA 2T’23. IDEAS DESTACADAS Y PREVIEWS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)
COMPAÑÍAS QUE APARECEN EN EL INFORME. ESPAÑA: ACCIONA ENERGÍA, ARCELORMITTAL, CELLNEX, ENDESA, FERROVIAL, NEINOR HOMES, NH HOTELES, REPSOL, TELEFÓNICA, UNICAJA. EUROPA: AIRBUS, AIR LIQUIDE, BNP PARIBAS, MERCEDES BENZ GROUP, SCHNEIDER.Incluido en el informe diario de hoy, y durante toda la campaña de resultados, incorporamos al final una presentación con los resultados destacados en positivo y negativo y previews de Rdos. 2T’23 que se publicarán en España y Europa en los próximos días.
La Fed no aclara si termina con el ciclo de subidas
La reunión de la Fed subió como se esperaba los tipos +25 p.b. dejándolos en la horquilla de 5,25%-5,50% máximos de los últimos 22 años. Posteriormente J. Powell subrayó que no se ha tomado una decisión sobre septiembre y que dependerá de los datos que se publiquen. En el Euro STOXX los mejores sectores fueron Inmobiliario seguido por Viajes&Ocio mientras que B. Consumo (muy lastrado por las compañías de lujo) y Tecnología terminaron con las mayores caídas de la sesión. Por el lado macro, en la Eurozona la M3 de junio avanzó menos de lo previsto. En EE.UU. datos negativos en el inmobiliario, los permisos de construcción se contrajeron en línea en junio mientras que las viviendas iniciadas retrocedían más de lo esperado. En Rdos empresariales de EE.UU. del 2T’23 Meta, Coca Cola y Boeing salieron mejor, Hilton, Ebay y AT&T en línea.
Qué esperamos para hoy
Las bolsas europeas abrirían con subidas de medio punto gracias al rebote del sector Tecnológico. En estos momentos, los futuros del S&P cotizan con subidas del +0,27% (el S&P 500 terminó plano con respecto al nivel al que estaba al cierre de las bolsas europeas). La volatilidad en EE.UU. bajó (VIX 13,19). Los mercados asiáticos cotizan con subidas (CSI 300 chino +0,27%, Nikkei de Japón +0,78%).
Hoy destaca la Eurozona reunión de tipos de interés del BCE. En México la tasa de paro de junio. En EE.UU. el paro semanal y el PIB del 2T’23. En Rdos. empresariales de EE.UU. del 2T’23 Amazon.com, Mastercard, McDonalds’s y T-Mobile, entre otros. En subastas: Italia (9.750 M euros en bonos agosto 2028, octubre 2028, 2032 y 2033).
ESPAÑA
ARCELORMITTAL. Rdos. algo mejor de lo esperado, rebajan Outlook. COMPRAR
Rdos. mejor en EBITDA 2T’23 (2.605 M dólares vs 2.506 M dólares BS(e) y 1.860 M dólares consenso) y netamente mejor que 1T’23 favorecidos por el spread de precios, que compensa el menor volumen de entregas. A nivel de guidance, rebajan su previsión de consumo aparente del +2/+3% ex-China a +1/+2% ante una previsión netamente más conservadora para sus principales mercados (EE.UU., Europa y Brasil). Rdos. positivos en operativo, que ante los comentarios de menor demanda en sus 3 principales regiones (que suponen el >85% del EBITDA) deberían tener una acogida negativa. En todo caso, pensamos que la clave a futuro será el spread de precios (especialmente su capacidad de gestión de costes), donde esperamos que aporten más detalles en la conference call de Rdos. (15:30h).
NEINOR. Rdos. 1S’23 en línea y poco representativos. Confirma dividendo y recompra de acciones. COMPRAR
Los números de la PyG son flojos pero poco representativos del ejercicio porque la mayor parte de las entregas se producen en la segunda parte del año. Ventas: 181 M euros (-53,5% vs -54,2% BS(e)); EBITDA: 22 M euros (-63,5% vs -68,5% BS(e)). En cualquier caso, la compañía reitera su guidance para todo el ejercicio y tras los anuncios en las últimas semanas de acuerdos de venta de una serie de BtRs la visibilidad ha mejorado significativamente.
Retribución al accionista. Confirma que pagará una serie de dividendos y recomprará acciones por un valor total de 126 M euros en 2023 (17% de la capitalización: 10% en dividendos y 7% en recompras). Creemos que es una buena noticia en la medida en que entendemos que el mercado no daba 100% de credibilidad a este agresivo paquete de retribución.
NH HOTELES. Rdos. 2T’23 en línea en operativo, pero mejores en deuda. VENDER
Rdos. 2T'23 prácticamente en línea con lo que se esperaba en ventas (+21,8% vs +19,3% BS(e) y +16,7% consenso) y en EBITDA (+17,6% vs +17,2% BS(e) y +18,1% consenso), si bien en márgenes (33,7% vs 34,3% BS(e), 35,3% consenso y 37% 2T’19) se sitúa ligeramente por debajo de lo que nosotros esperábamos (-60 p.b.) y -160 p.b. frente al consenso. La DFN 2T’23 se sitúa en 246 M euros (-94 M euros vs 1T’23, vs -100 M euros BS(e) y -47 M euros consenso) lo que supone 0,4x DFN/EBITDA LTM (vs 0,6x en 2019). La posición de liquidez sigue siendo fuerte con 573 M euros. A pesar de ser unos Rdos. espectaculares no creemos que vayan a tener un impacto significativo dada la situación en la que se encuentra la compañía de baja liquidez con un free float +10% vs su guidance anterior) que implicaría que tanto nosotros como el consenso deberemos revisar al alza nuestras cifras para 2023 (>+30% BS(e) y >+5% consenso). Rdos. muy positivos si bien el que la revisión de guidance sea por una división menor supone un catalizador más discreto. Por otra parte, vemos positivo que mantengan el tono favorable aunque será clave la granularidad que den en la call alrededor de la demanda.
SAFRAN. Rdos 1S’23 en línea. Elevan guidance’23 y anuncian plan de recompra de acciones. COMPRAR
Rdos 1S’23 en línea en EBIT (+32,3% vs +33,4% BS(e) y +33% consenso). En Propulsión (51% EBIT), los ingresos por aftermarket de aviación comercial han estado por encima de lo esperado (+37% orgánico vs +32% BS(e)). Además, el FCF también ha estado por encima (1.463 M euros, +26% vs esperado). Con esta evolución elevan el guidance’23 de EBIT ajustado un +3% hasta c. 3.100 M euros (en línea BS(e) y consenso) y de FCF un +8% (a >2.700 M euros vs 2.672 M euros consenso y 2.570 M euros BS(e)). También anuncian plan de recompra de acciones por 1.000 M euros (1,6% capitalización) hasta 2025. Con todo, pese a la subida del valor (+8% vs ES50 en 2023), esperamos acogida positiva hoy.
SCHNEIDER. Rdos. 1S’23 sin grandes sorpresas. Elevan ligeramente el guidance’23. VENDER
Rdos. 1S’23 algo mejores en EBITA ajustado (+14,1% vs +12,6% BS(e) y +13,6% consenso) con un margen del 18%, que supone una mejora de +70 p.b. (vs 1S’22) por mejoras en productividad, volúmenes y pricing. Destacamos el crecimiento positivo de las ventas orgánicas 2T’22 de todas las regiones, en especial China (15% ventas), que crece a doble dígito (principalmente por una base comparable favorable). Con esta evolución, SU eleva el guidance’23 en ventas comparables a +11%/+13% (vs +10%/+13% anterior y +11,8% BS(e) y consenso) y margen EBITA ajustado en +10 p.b. a 17,7%/18% (vs 17,9% BS(e) y consenso). La falta de sorpresas relevantes unido a un guidance que no debería suponer revisiones fuertes en estimaciones y el performance en 2023 (+8% vs ES50) podrían pesar en la acogida de hoy.
L'Air Liquide is engaged in the market of gases for industry, health and the environment. Oxygen, nitrogen, hydrogen, and rare gases make up Co.'s core activities. Co. structures its activities in three segments: Gas and Services, Engineering and Technology, and Other activities. The Gas and Services segment comprises four business lines: Industrial Merchant, Large Industries, Healthcare and Electronics; Engineering and Technology designs, develops and builds industrial gas production plants for Co. and third parties; and the Other Activities segment develops welding and cutting edge technologies, and markets deep-sea diving and swimming equipment to professionals and privates individuals.
BNP Paribas is engaged in the provision of banking and financial services. Co.'s business activities are divided into two segments: Retail Banking & Services and Corporate and Investment Banking. The Retail Banking and Services business includes domestic markets and international financial services. The Corporate and Institutional Banking comprises of corporate banking, global markets, and securities services. Other activities include principal investments, which related to Co.'s central treasury function, some costs related to crossbusiness projects, the residential mortgage lending business of personal finance, and certain investments.
Cellnex Telecom SA is a Spain-based company engaged in the wireless telecommunications (telecom) business. Its activities are divided into three segments: Broadcasting infrastructure, Telecom site rental, as well as Network services and other. The Broadcasting infrastructure division comprises distribution and transmission of television (TV) and frequency modulation (FM) radio signals, operation and maintenance (O&M) of radio broadcasting network, as well as over-the-top (OTT) radio services, among others. The Telecom site rental division provides access to wireless infrastructure, primarily through infrastructure hosting and telecom equipment co-location, mainly for mobile network operators and other wireless and broadband telecom network operators. The Network services and other division offers connectivity services for a variety of telecom operators and radio communication, among others. The Company also develops 5th generation mobile networks (5G) through Alticom BV.
Daimler provides a range of transportation products, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles, and also financial services. Co. operates in five segments. Mercedes-Benz Cars sells passenger cars and off-road vehicles under the Mercedes-Benz brand and small cars under the smart brand. The Daimler Trucks distributes its trucks (Mercedes-Benz, Freightliner, FUSO, Western Star, Thomas Built Buses and BharatBenz). The vans of the Mercedes-Benz Vans segment are sold under the brand name Mercedes-Benz and Freightliner. Daimler Buses sells completely built-up buses (Mercedes-Benz and Setra). The Daimler Financial Services division supports sales of Co.'s automotive brands.
Endesa is engaged in the production, transmission, distribution, and supply of electricity, through hydroelectric, fossil fuel, and nuclear generation. Co. is also engaged in the mining of coal for use in its fossil-fuel electric plants; mining research; land restoration, and environmental monitoring and control.
Ferrovial is a transportation company based in Spain. Co. is engaged in operations in the transportation sector. Co. specializes in the design, construction, management, administration and maintenance of transport infrastructures. Co.'s services range also includes the maintenance of parking lots, and land-, sea- and air-based transport networks. Co. is also engaged in the promotion and operation of short-stay parking lots, parking regulation and management services and promotion and sale of residents' parking.
Neinor Homes SA, formerly Neinor Homes SLU, is a Spain-based company engaged in the real estate sector. The Company focuses on the design, construction and promotion of residential properties. It develops housing projects in various Spanish cities, such as Malaga, Madrid, Barcelona, Cordoba, Vizcaya, Alicante, Almeria and Gerona.
NH Hotel is engaged in the operation and management of hotels throughout Spain, the Benelux countries, Germany, and South America.
Repsol is an oil and gas company. Co. is engaged in all the activities relating to the oil and gas industry, including exploration, development and production of crude oil and natural gas, transportation of oil products, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and natural gas, refining, the production of a wide range of oil products and the retailing of oil products, oil derivatives, petrochemicals, LPG and natural gas, as well as the generation, transportation, distribution and supply of electricity. Co. operates in more than 40 countries. Co.'s operations are divided into four segments: Upstream, Downstream, LNG and Gas Natural Fenosa.
Safran designs, develops and manufactures high technology electronics through three businesses: Aerospace, Defense and Security. Aerospace includes Aerospace Propulsion (propulsion systems for commercial aircraft, military transport, training and combat aircraft, rocket engines, civil and military helicopters) and Aircraft Equipment (mechanical, hydromechanical and electromechanical equipment); Defense (optronic, avionic and electronic systems); and Security (biometric technologies for fingerprint, iris and face recognition, identity management products, access management and transaction security, including tomographic systems for detection of dangerous or illicit substances in baggage).
Schneider Electric is engaged in energy management. Co. is organized into four areas: Buildings and Partner, Infrastructure, Industry and IT; and operates in four principal markets: non-residential & residential buildings, utilities & infrastructure, industry & machine manufacturers and data centers & networks. The non-residential and residential buildings market includes end-users, property developers, design firms, and systems integrators. The utilities and infrastructure market includes energy operators. The industries market serves end users and companies, and engineering firms. The data centers and networks contain servers that process and store digital data in secure rooms.
Talgo is engaged in designing, manufacturing, repairing and maintaining the railway rolling stock, as well as the manufacturing, assembling, repairing and maintaining the engines, machinery and parts of the railway systems. Co. has an industrial presence in seven countries: Spain, Germany, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Russia, Saudi Arabia and U.S.A. Co. has an active fleet in Europe, Asia and North America that comprises of 94 high-speed trains and more than 1,400 Talgo tilting passenger cars. Also, Co. purchases, redesigns, constructs, leases and sells all types of real estate.
Telefonica is engaged in the provision of public or private telecommunications services, including ancillary or complementary telecommunications services or related services. Co.'s fixed business includes: traditional fixed telecommunication services, Internet and broadband multimedia services, data and business-aplications services, and wholesale services for telecommunication operators. Co. also provides a range of mobile and related services and products to consumer and business customers, including mobile voice services, value added services, mobile data and Internet services, wholesale services, corporate services, roaming, fixed wireless, and, trunking and paging.
Unicaja Banco SA is a Spain-based financial institution (the Bank) engaged in the banking sector. The Bank offers services to individual and business customers. Its products and services range includes current and savings accounts, debit and credit cards, consumer and commercial loans, real estate credit, securities brokerage, funds management, leasing, factoring, pension plans, life and non-life insurance, international trade financing, money transfer, as well as treasury, among others. The Bank operates a number of branches in Spain and Morocco. The Bank is controlled by Fundacion Bancaria Unicaja.
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