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INFORME DIARIO 31 JULIO + RDOS. ESPAÑA Y EUROPA 2T’25. IDEAS DESTACADAS Y PREVIEWS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

COMPAÑÍAS QUE APARECEN EN EL INFORME: ESPAÑA: ARCELOR MITTAL, FLUIDRA, MELIA, MERLIN PROPERTIES, NEINOR HOMES, REDEIA, SECTOR ELÉCTRICO, VISCOFAN. EUROPA: AB INBEV, AIRBUS, BMW, ING GROEP, SANOFI, SAFRAN, SOCIETE GENERALE, VINCI.

Incluido en el informe diario de hoy, y durante toda la campaña de resultados, incorporamos al final una presentación con los resultados destacados en positivo y negativo y previews de Rdos. 2T’25 que se publicarán en España y Europa en los próximos días.

El crecimiento resiste por el momento
Las bolsas europeas terminaron con ligeras ganancias ante los síntomas de resistencia del PIB del 2T’25 y antes de la reunión de la Fed, que finalmente mantuvo los tipos de interés con el voto en contra de dos miembros (C. Waller y M. Bowman). Aunque sin descartar cualquier medida J. Powell rechazó las presiones y se mostró preocupado por una inflación “fuerte” y por las incertidumbres comerciales. En un STOXX 600 dividido, los mejores sectores fueron Utilities y Tecnología mientras que Autos y Químicas terminaron con las mayores cesiones. Por el lado macro, en Alemania el PIB del 2T’25 se contrajo un -0,1% t/t como se esperaba. En la Eurozona el PIB preliminar del 2T’25 avanzó un 0,1% t/t. En México el PIB preliminar del 2T’25 avanzó de forma inesperada. En EE.UU. el PIB preliminar del 2T’25 avanzó un 3,0 t/ta batiendo expectativas. La encuesta de empleo privado ADP de julio rebotó más de lo esperado. En el tema comercial, D. Trump amenazó a la India con un arancel del 25% a partir del 1 de agosto y con mayores sanciones si el país continúa comprando energía a Rusia. Además, impuso aranceles del 50% al cobre y adelantó un acuerdo comercial con Corea del Sur que impone aranceles generales del 15%. En Brasil la reunión del BdeB mantuvo tipos el tipo Selic en 15%antes de la decisión de imponer aranceles del 50% por parte de EE.UU. En Japón la reunión BoJ mantuvo sin cambios el tipo de referencia en el 0,5% adelantando un mayor crecimiento (0,6% vs 0,5% ant.) e inflación (2,8% vs 2,3% ant.) este año. En China el PMI manufacturero (12% hasta 12,5% basado en mejoras muy discretas en costes y comisiones. Aunque ING llega a estos Rdos con un performance relativo peor al de su sector (-4%) y hoy mejora guidance, esperamos una reacción muy neutra con sesgo negativo por las dudas que se puedan generar en M. intereses. Aunque en términos absolutos podría parecer que no cotiza caro (1,2x P/TE’25) nosotros le vemos poco recorrido para un ROTE’25
Underlyings
Airbus SE

Airbus is an European Aeronautic Defense and Space company whose core business is the manufacturing of commercial aircraft, civil and military helicopters, commercial space launch vehicles, missiles, military aircraft, satellites and defense systems and defense electronics and the rendering of services related to these activities. Co. organizes its businesses into the following five operating divisions: Airbus Commercial, Airbus Military, Eurocopter, Cassidian and Astrium. In addition, Co.'s Other Businesses division engages in the development, manufacturing, marketing and sale of regional turboprop aircraft and aircraft components.

Anheuser-Busch InBev N.V. ADS

ArcelorMittal

BAYERISCHE MOTOREN WERKE AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT

Bayerische Motoren Werke is a holding company, engaged in the development, manufacture and sale of cars and motorcycles. Co. owns three brands: BMW, MINI and Rolls-Royce. Co.'s BMW automobile range encompasses the 1 Series, including coupe and convertible models; the 3 Series, including sedan, touring, coupe and convertible models; the 5 Series, including sedan and touring models; the 6 Series, including coupe or convertible; the 7 Series large sedan; the Z4 roadster and coupe; the sports utility vehicles, X3, X5 and X6 and M models. Co. also provides cars under the MINI brand and motorcycles under the BMW brand. The Rolls-Royce brand provides three cars, Phantom, Coupe and Ghost.

Fluidra S.A.

Fluidra is engaged in the manufacture and commercialization of accessories and specific products for swimming pools, irrigation, and water treatment and purification systems.

ING Groep N.V.

Melia Hotels International S.A.

Melia Hotels International is the parent company of a group engaged in the acquisition, management and operation of hotels. Co. operates its hotel network in Germany, Argentina, Brazil, Bulgaria, Cabo Verde, Chile, China, Costa Rica, Croatia, Cuba, Egypt, Spain, United States, France, Greece, Netherlands, Indonesia, Italy, Luxembourg, Malaysia, Mexico, Panama, Peru, Portugal, Puerto Rico, United Kingdom, Dominican Republic, Singapore, Switzerland, Tunisia, Uruguay, Venezuela and Vietnam under the followings brandnames: Paradisus Resorts®, Melia Hotels & Resorts®, TRYP Hoteles® and Sol Hotels & Resorts®.

MERLIN Properties SOCIMI S.A.

Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA is a Spain-based company engaged in the operation of a real estate investment trust (REIT). The Company focuses on the acquisition, management and rental of commercial properties located in the Iberian Peninsula, primarily in Spain. The Company's activities are divided into the following segments: Office buildings, operating a portfolio of office space; High-street retail, engaged in leasing retail stores; Shopping centers, engaged in managing department stores; Logistics, operating logistics warehouses and distribution centers, and Others. The Company's other activities include property management services rendered to third parties.

Neinor Homes SA

Neinor Homes SA, formerly Neinor Homes SLU, is a Spain-based company engaged in the real estate sector. The Company focuses on the design, construction and promotion of residential properties. It develops housing projects in various Spanish cities, such as Malaga, Madrid, Barcelona, Cordoba, Vizcaya, Alicante, Almeria and Gerona.

Red Electrica Corp. S.A.

Safran S.A.

Safran designs, develops and manufactures high technology electronics through three businesses: Aerospace, Defense and Security. Aerospace includes Aerospace Propulsion (propulsion systems for commercial aircraft, military transport, training and combat aircraft, rocket engines, civil and military helicopters) and Aircraft Equipment (mechanical, hydromechanical and electromechanical equipment); Defense (optronic, avionic and electronic systems); and Security (biometric technologies for fingerprint, iris and face recognition, identity management products, access management and transaction security, including tomographic systems for detection of dangerous or illicit substances in baggage).

Sanofi

Sanofi is an integrated, global healthcare company focused on patient needs and engaged in the research, development, manufacture and marketing of healthcare products. Two segments make up Co.'s business: Pharmaceuticals and Vaccines. The Pharmaceuticals segment covers research, development, production and marketing of medicines, consisting of flagship products, plus a broad range of prescription medicines, generic medicines, and consumer health products. The Vaccines segment includes research, development, production and marketing of vaccines in five areas: pediatric vaccines, influenza vaccines, adult and adolescent booster vaccines, meningitis vaccines, and travel and endemic vaccines.

Societe Generale S.A. Class A

Societe Generale is a universal banking and financial services group based in France. Co. is engaged in operations in areas such as retail banking, corporate and investment banking, financial services, insurance, private banking and asset management. Co.'s three segments are: French Retail Banking (FRB); International Retail Banking & Financial Services (IBFS); and Global Banking and Investor Solutions (GBIS). FRB offers products and services to individual, professional and business customers; IBFS comprises banking networks and consumer finance activities; and GBIS covers global activities of Corporate and Investment Banking. Co. maintains operations across 76 countries globally.

VINCI SA

Vinci is engaged in building, civil engineering and facilities management. Through its subsidiaries, Co. is engaged in five divisions comprising of: the Building division which provides retail solutions including construction and fit-out in both the retail and commercial sectors; the Civil Engineering division; the Air division which provides program management, engineering and construction services to customers with airport infrastructure requirements; the Technology division; and the VINCI Facilities division which provides facilities management, repair and maintenance and small works in both the private and public sectors.

Viscofan S.A.

Viscofan is the parent company of the Viscofan Group. Co. is divided into two major operational subgroups. The companies comprising the Naturin GmbH subgroup are engaged in the manufacture and distribution of artificial casings (small and big diameter collagen and plastics) for the meat industry. Through its wholly-owned subsidiary IAN, S.A., Co. also manufactures and distributes canned vegetables (asparagus, olives and tomato).

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