ALMIRALL: 4Q’22 RESULTS PREVIEW AND ESTIMATES REVISION (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)
4Q’22 results preview and cut to estimates. BUYWe expect the 4Q’22 results (20/02) to be marked by the sale of Motilex in Italy (impact of € +5-10 M on EBITDA BS(e)), which would allow ALM to close 2022 in the middle of its guidance range of “EBITDA between € 190-210 M” (-15% vs. 2021). 2023 should be a year of transition, hit by margins being squeezed and lacking clear drivers, apart from the approval of Lebrikizumab (25% of T.P.) in 4Q’23 BS(e), a product that should boost medium-term growth and the potential of which we do not think is being fully priced in. We roll over our model and cut estimates by -12% in EBITDA’22-24 in order to reflect a more conservative scenario, with an impact of -11% on the T.P., which falls to € 12.00/sh. (+35% upside).
Almirall is engaged in the acquisition, manufacture, storage, sale and mediation in the sale of pharmaceutical specialties and products and all manner of raw materials used to prepare pharmaceutical specialties and products. Also, Co. acquires, manufactures, storages, sales and mediates in the sale of cosmetics, chemical, biotechnological and diagnostic products for human, veterinary, agrochemical and food-industry use, as well as all manner of utensils, complements and accessories for the chemical, pharmaceutical and clinical industries. In addition, Co. is engaged in the acquisition, sale, lease, subdivision and development of land lots, land and properties of all kinds.
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