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IBERIAN DAILY 02 MAY + 1Q’23 RESULTS. HIGHLIGHTS AND REST OF PREVIEWS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: ALMIRALL, ENCE, OHLA, REPSOL.

At the end of today’s report, and during the entire results season, we will include a presentation with positive and negative results highlights and previews for the 1Q’23 results to be released over the coming days in Spain.

The earnings season continues to mark the stock market performance
The 1Q’23 earnings season (positive for the S&P500) marked the stock market performance that continues to await the FED and ECB meetings, especially after the CB of Australia unexpectedly raised rates by another +25bps. In this regard, the consensus is forecasting +25bps up to 5.25%-5% for the Fed (3 May) with Fed Funds futures at 5.05% through June’23, whereas the implicit rates are pricing in +30bps in Europe up to 3.75% (ECB 4 May). Thus, the Euro STOXX ended the week down -1.5%, with a worse performance of thee Ibex, affected by the banking sector’s drop (-1.89% over the week). The best-performing sectors within the Euro STOXX were Real Estate and Insurance were the best-performing sectors in the Euro STOXX whereas Banks and Financial Services ended with the worst relative performance. On the macro side, in Spain and Germany, April’s preliminary inflation and the 1Q’23 GDP came in better than expected, which led to significant tightening in sovereign bonds ahead of the decision to be made by Central Banks. In the euro zone, the 1Q’23 GDP came in one tenth below expectations. In the US, we saw a battery of macroeconomic data, with the 1Q’23 employment costs coming in above expectations, March’s personal outlays at 0.0%, the University of Michigan consumer confidence in line with expectations and Chicago’s PMI showing resilience in April at 48.6 vs. 43.5 expected. Yesterday, the ISM manufacturing index recovered more than expected, still showing high pressure on the employment and prices components. In Japan, consumer confidence data came in better than expected. Over the weekend, PMIs in China fell more than expected (the manufacturing index below 50). In US business results, Exxon Mobil, Colgate and Chevron came in better
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with slight increases.
Currently, S&P futures are flat (the S&P 500 ended +0.21% higher vs. the European closing bell on Friday). Volatility in the US remained very low (VIX 16). Early this morning, the Japanese stock market traded flat (China’s CSI 300 closed).
Today we will learn in Spain, Germany and the euro zone April’s manufacturing and services PMI, in the US March’s factory orders and durable goods orders. In US business results, Starbucks, HSBC, Marriott, Ford Motor, Reuters, Japan Tobacco and AMD, among others, will release their earnings.