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IBERIAN DAILY 10 NOVEMBER + 3Q’25 RESULTS. HIGHLIGHTS AND REST OF PREVIEWS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: ALMIRALL, GREENING, TALGO, VISCOFAN.

At the end of today’s report, and during the entire results season, we will include a presentation with positive and negative results highlights and previews for the 3Q’25 results to be released over the coming days in Spain.

Tech stocks raise doubts on markets
It was a week of drops on both sides of the Atlantic, with the IBEX falling below 16,000 against a backdrop of growing uncertainty surrounding company valuations, especially those linked to AI and the lack of US macro releases (due to the shutdown) to clarify rate trends. In the STOXX 600, most sectors (13/20) closed with losses, led by Technology and Industrials, with Autos and Food posting the biggest gains. On the macro side, in the US November’s preliminary U. Michigan consumer confidence fell more than expected. In Mexico, October’s inflation slowed in line with expectations. In China, October’s inflation recovered unexpectedly (0.2% YoY), and production prices fell less than expected. In US business results, KKR and Franklin Resources beat expectations.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with gains of +1.5% in view of the expectation of an imminent agreement in the US to reopen the Govt. and once again release macro data. Currently, S&P futures are up +0.7% (the S&P 500 ended +1.1% higher vs. the European closing bell). Asian markets are farisinglling (China’s CSI 300 +0.1% and Japan’s Nikkei +1.4%).
Today in the euro zone we will learn November’s Sentix index. In US business results, Tyson Foods, Paramount and Cisco, among others, will release their earnings.


COMPANY NEWS

ALMIRALL, OVERWEIGHT
The 3Q’25 results beat expectations in EBITDA (€ 59 M vs. € 53 M BS(e) and consensus; +56% vs. 3Q’24) and with a strong performance by Ebglyss (€ 31 M of sales vs. € 31 M BS(e)) and Ilumetri (sales +11% vs. +12% BS(e)). NFD fell by € -58 M to € 19 M (0.1x NFD/EBITDA), beating our forecast of € 69 M due to better working capital performance. The company announced Anti-IL-1RAP-mAb (Hidradenitis suppurativa) has passed to phase II, and it maintains the guidance’25 of sales growth between +10% and +13% (vs. +13% consensus) and EBITDA between € 220-240 M (mid point € 230 M; +19% vs. 2024), in line with the consensus (€ 232 M).
We expect a slightly positive reaction following the strong recent performance (+41% in 2025; +4% vs. IBEX).

GREENING
GGR announced a voluntary TOB on 100% of EIDF (including treasury stock), offering a swap of two new GGR shares for seven of EIDF (the equation means around a -22% discount to Friday’s closing price), with which it intends to integrate the company through merger by absorption. Following the takeover, GGR expects to carry out a capital increase of up to € 30 M (23.3% of GGR’s market cap) to strengthen the new group’s financial structure, which will account for 20% of the shareholding structure; the rest will be shared out among GGR’s current partners (49%) and those of EIDF (31%). The effectiveness of the bid is subject to conditions precedent such as a minimum 40% acceptance of EIDF’s voting rights or irrevocable subscription pledges for at least € 15 M. The acceptance period would be 15 calendar days starting on the work day following verification that the last of the conditions precedent have been met (not the condition of minimum acceptance). The strategic aim of this move would be to consolidate GGR’s position in the market with a target of 250 MW operational in 2027 and € 35 M of EBITDA (vs. 2025-26e guidance of € 10-13 M and € 18-21 M, respectively). Separately, the announcement of the TOB would have also elicited a reaction from EIDF’s Board of Directors, which stated that “this is an unsolicited offer, and EIDF had no prior knowledge of the bid or the intention of making it.”
Negative news, although in any event we will have to wait until the required conditions precedent are met, especially the 40% acceptance from EIDF (which would appear to be ambitious looking at the discount offered in the echange ratio) and obtaining at least € 15 M subscription in the capital increase. Apart from this, and although the strategic rationale of consolidating the domestic market would make sense, we would see some execution risk in the potential integration, bearing in mind the key time at which GGR would find itself currently, mainly searching for financial partners and asset sales. Note that awaiting more visibility on the company, our valuation is Under Revision (from the previous range of € 5.83-8.06/sh.).

TALGO, UNDERWEIGHT
Pegaso and some minority stakeholders in TLGO have signed a contract to sell 29.76327% of TLGO’s shares (29.99% of voting rights, discounting treasury stock) to a consortium comprising Clerbil (which will take 8.5%), Finkatuz (8.5%), BBK Bank Foundation (8.5%) and Vital Bank Foundation (the remaining 4.247%) at a price of € 4.25/sh. (+56% vs. Thursday’s closing price). A contingent variable could be added to this depending on whether over the 24 months following the date the sale is finalized any of the members of the consortium transfer or pledge to transfer TLGO shares to a third party for a unit price above € 4.25/sh. In this case, said member of the consortium will have to pay the sellers an amount equivalent to the product between (i) the number of shares transferred and (ii) a percentage of the excess determined in the following manner: (a) 100% for the excess up to € 5/sh. And (b) 50% for the excess above € 5/sh. Likewise, the sellers have assumed the following commitments with the buyers until 15 March’26: (i) not to acquire shares in TLGO and (ii) not to exercise their right to designate members on TLGO’s Board of Directors through the proportional representation system or any other way. The sale is expected to finalized before 31 Jan’26. Additionally, the agreement is subject to meeting certain conditions precedent no later than 31 Jan’26, including the subscription by Patentes Talgo S.L. and certain financial institutions and the Compañía Española de Seguros de Crédito to the exporting of certain financing agreements and coverage instruments, as well as others that are normal in these kinds of deals.
Positive news, as it appears the shareholding transfer is beginning to flow, and this was reflected in the share price, which rose +9.7% (vs. -1.3% IBEX). On the negative side, the deal, whereby Sidenor (Clerbil) and the Basque consortium will take control of TLGO, means there will be no TOB. With all this in mind, we still see much uncertainty hanging over the stock (apart from this deal being carried out to completion), such as the high debt level (€ 467 M in 1H’25, meaning a ratio above 10x NFD/EBITDA, with the need to refinance, and the weak results (1H’25 sales -22% and 1H’25 EBITDA € -16.5 M).