EUR 100.00 For Business Accounts Only

IBERIAN DAILY 18 MARCH (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: ALMIRALL, PUIG BRANDS.

The Ibex returns to 17,200 points
Yesterday Brent crude remained above US$ 100/b for the fourth session, with stock markets seeing gains for the second consecutive session, where Israel confirmed the death of Iran’s national security chief, A. Larijani. In the STOXX 600, most sectors ended with gains, led by Energy (for the second consecutive session) and Utilities vs. the drops of Media an Consumer Goods On the macro side, in Germany March’s ZEW index slowed down significantly, as opposed to expectations due to the war in Iran, reporting the lowest reading since Liberation Day in April’25. In the US February’s home sales rose unexpectedly. In geopolitics, the UAE has suspended operations in the Shah gas field, and the Port of Fujairah has once again interrupted loadings while crude oil prices in the port of Oman remain at US$ 155/barrel.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with gains >+0.50% that would ease throughout the session. Currently, S&P futures are up +0.6% (the S&P 500 ended -0.7% lower vs. the European closing bell). Asian markets are climbing (China’s CSI 300 +0.1%, Japan’s Nikkei +2.6% and South Korea’s Kospi +5%).
Today in the US the Fed will hold its meeting and we will learn January’s factory orders and February’s production prices, and in the euro zone February’s final inflation.


COMPANY NEWS

ALMIRALL. We see upside by meeting its guidance. OVERWEIGHT.
After its 4Q’25 Result we raise our EBITDA estimates’26-28e by +5% on average to assume its guidance’26e (EBITDA between € 270/290 M; +20% vs. 2025) and include the roll-over, which has a combined impact on our T.P. of +16% to € 14.50/sh. (+27% upside). We believe that ALM offers a defensive profile against the current volatility backdrop and following the poor recent share price performance (-11% in 2026; -11% vs. IBEX) we see appealing upside with the earnings delivery in 2026 and by meeting its guidance in the medium-term (double-digit sales growth through 2030e and 25% EBITDA margin in 2028e (+400bps vs. 2025). We reiterate our OVERWEIGHT recommendation.