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IBERIAN DAILY 19 FEBRUARY + 4Q’23 RESULTS. PREVIEWS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: ALMIRALL, GRIFOLS.

At the end of today’s report, and during the entire results season, we will include a presentation with previews for the 4Q’23 results to be released over the coming days in Spain.

The Ibex paused for a break last week
The US inflation data led to stock market fears but most European indices managed to end in positive territory with the exception of the Ibex that closed with slight drops, below the 10,000-point level. Thus, in the STOXX 600, all the sectors except Technology, Travel&Leisure and Energy closed with gains last week, led by Autos and Retail. On the macro side, in the UK, January’s retail sales climbed significantly and unexpectedly (the sharpest increase since April’21). In the US January’s production prices rose more than expected, whereas housing starts and January’s construction permits moderated more than expected. The University of Michigan consumer confidence hit 30-month highs despite rising slightly less than expected. From the Fed, M. Dali was in favour of three rate cuts and R. Bostic in favour of two, beginning in the summer. In China, internal tourism spending over the New Year holidays would have grown +47.3% vs. 2023 and 7.7% above the pre-pandemic levels. In Japan, machinery orders recovered more than expected in December. In US business results, Vulcan Material came in better than expected and Alliant Energy below expectations.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with drops of as much as -0.3% that would aggravate in a session focused on earnings results given the lack of macroeconomic references. Currently, S&P futures are up +0.10% (the S&P 500 closed -0.56% lower vs. the European closing bell). Asian stock markets are trading with mixed results (China’s CSI 300 +0.72%, Japan’s Nikkei -0.07%).
Today no relevant macroeconomic data will be released.


COMPANY NEWS

ALMIRALL. Weak 4Q’23 Results in Net Profit due to impairment. 2024 Guidance below expectations. BUY.
4Q’23 Results in line with expectations in EBITDA (€ 36 M vs. € 37 M consensus and 39 M BS(e)) but below expectations in Net Profit (€ -52 M vs. € 5 M expected) due to an impairment in Seysara. Better performance of NFD (+0% to € 29 M vs. € 58 M BS(e); 0.2x NFD/EBITDA). The company announced a 2024 guidance with high single digit sales growth and between € 175 M and € 190 M of EBITDA (€ 183 M mid-point; +5% vs. 2023), below expectations (€ 190 M). We raise our EBITDA and Net Profit estimates’24-26 by +11% and +38%, respectively to include Ebglyss (already in valuation) and the roll-over, setting our T.P. at € 11.50/sh. (+36% upside, +2% vs. previous T.P.). We expect a negative market reaction after the +2% YTD rise (+3% vs. IBEX).