IBERIAN DAILY 25 JULY + 2Q’25 RESULTS. HIGHLIGHTS AND REST OF PREVIEWS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)
NEWS SUMMARY: ALMIRALL, COLONIAL, IBERDROLA, TALGO.At the end of today’s report, and during the entire results season, we will include a presentation with positive and negative results highlights and previews for the 2Q’25 results to be released over the coming days in Spain.
ECB keeps interest rates unchanged
European stock markets saw a session that ended worse than it began, where the IBEX stood out with a gain of more than 1.5% to 14,250 points. Among the factors behind this performance were the doubts on the trade agreement with the US (Trump has suggested that Europe’s offer is “very bad”) and the ECB keeping rates unchanged. In the STOXX 600, Telecoms and Banks were the best performers, whereas Food and Consumer Goods were the worst performers. On the macro side, in the euro zone June’s PMIs rose more than expected, with the manufacturing index hitting a high since Jan’24 of 49.8 and the services index at 51.2 (a six-month high). From the ECB, the organisation kept rates at 2.0% after nearly a year of continual cuts, recognising the falling inflation and awaiting the impact from tariffs. In Spain, the 2Q’25 unemployment rate fell more than expected to 10.3%. In the US, the manufacturing PMI fell sharply to 49.5 and the services PMI rose much more than expected to 55.2. Weekly jobless claims fell more than expected and July’s new home sales rose less than expected. In China, the PBoC injected US$ 84 Bn of liquidity through repo operations, being the largest injection since January in order to slow the rise on the bond markets. In US business results, Nasdaq and Blackstone beat expectations, with Intel in line.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with slight losses, awaiting news in trade talks and with more exposed cyclicals (Autos, Consumer Goods, Basic Materials) suffering some punishment. Currently, S&P futures are up +0.02% (the S&P 500 ended -0.1% lower vs. the European closing bell). Asian markets are falling (China’s CSI 300 -0.50% and Japan’s Nikkei -0.87%).
Today in the UK we will learn June’s retail sales, in the euro zone June’s M3, in Germany July’s IFO and in the US June’s durable goods orders. In US business results Phillips 66 and Aon, among others, will release their earnings.
COMPANY NEWS
ALMIRALL. 2Q’25 Results below expectations on operating level. Guidance’25 maintained. OVERWEIGHT.
The 2Q’25 results came in below expectations in EBITDA (€ 51 M vs. € 54 M BS(e) and € 53 M consensus; -2% vs. 2Q’24), but with solid performance from Ilumetri (sales +13% vs. +11% BS(e)) and Ebglyss (€ 26 M of sales vs. € 27 M BS(e)). NFD rose € 51 M to € 77 M (0.4x NFD/EBITDA), above our forecast (€ 56 M) due to larger milestone payments from sales/R&D, and also dividends (the controlling shareholder chooses cash instead of shares). The company maintains its guidance’25 of sales growth between +10% and +13% (vs. +12% consensus) and EBITDA between € 220-240 M (midpoint € 230 M; +19% vs. 2024), in line with the consensus (€ 232 M). We do not rule out a negative reaction after the stock rose +31% in 2025 (+9% vs. IBEX).
COLONIAL. Solid 1H’25 Results. OVERWEIGHT.
Total rents grew +3% (vs. +2% BS(e)) and LfL rents +4% (in EPRA terms, vs. +4% BS(e)), thanks to indexation and improved prices in contract renewals. Recurring EPS remains flat following the capital increase last year, but it is well on track to reach the high end of the target range for 2025 (the company has reiterated its guidance) or even exceed it. The asset appraisal at a comparable scope of consolidation rose +2% since the beginning of the year (+4% vs. June’24) and NTA/sh. remained stable at € 9.60/sh. (dividend payment and negative tax adjustment). We believe the results are strong with a positive slant on the market.
2Q’25 Results highlights and rest of previews
Of the stocks releasing their earnings over the coming days, today on the positive side we highlight Merlin Properties (releasing on 30/07), where the appraisal of data centres could be a positive surprise and show that there is much hidden value in the business. Apart from this, we expect solid rent growth, with improved occupancy and prices.
Almirall is engaged in the acquisition, manufacture, storage, sale and mediation in the sale of pharmaceutical specialties and products and all manner of raw materials used to prepare pharmaceutical specialties and products. Also, Co. acquires, manufactures, storages, sales and mediates in the sale of cosmetics, chemical, biotechnological and diagnostic products for human, veterinary, agrochemical and food-industry use, as well as all manner of utensils, complements and accessories for the chemical, pharmaceutical and clinical industries. In addition, Co. is engaged in the acquisition, sale, lease, subdivision and development of land lots, land and properties of all kinds.
Iberdrola is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, Co. operates in four segments: network business, which includes all the energy transmission and distribution activities, and other regulated activity originated in Spain, the U.K., the U.S. and Brazil; deregulated business, which includes electricity generation and sales businesses as well as gas trading and storage businesses carried on by Co. in Spain, Portugal, the U.K. and North America; renewable business, with activities related to renewable energies in Spain, the U.K., the U.S. and the rest of the world; and other businesses, including the engineering and construction businesses and the non-power businesses.
Talgo is engaged in designing, manufacturing, repairing and maintaining the railway rolling stock, as well as the manufacturing, assembling, repairing and maintaining the engines, machinery and parts of the railway systems. Co. has an industrial presence in seven countries: Spain, Germany, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Russia, Saudi Arabia and U.S.A. Co. has an active fleet in Europe, Asia and North America that comprises of 94 high-speed trains and more than 1,400 Talgo tilting passenger cars. Also, Co. purchases, redesigns, constructs, leases and sells all types of real estate.
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