INFORME DIARIO 12 MAYO + RDOS. ESPAÑA Y EUROPA 1T’25. IDEAS DESTACADAS Y PREVIEWS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)
COMPAÑÍAS QUE APARECEN EN EL INFORME: ESPAÑA: ALMIRALL, CAIXABANK, IBERDROLA, INDRA, NEINOR HOMES, SANTANDER. EUROPA: UNICREDIT.Incluido en el informe diario de hoy, y durante toda la campaña de resultados, incorporamos al final una presentación con los resultados destacados en positivo y negativo y previews de Rdos. 1T’25 que se publicarán en España y Europa en los próximos días.
Vuelve la estabilidad y se acercan los máximos
Semana de avances en la mayoría de índices europeos, con un mercado que continúa confiando en una desescalada de la guerra comercial. Así, el Ibex ha vuelto a los máximos desde 2008 y el Dax (c. +2,0% en la semana) alcanzó nuevos máximos históricos. En el STOXX 600 la mayoría de sectores cerraron la semana con ganancias, lideradas por Autos y Bancos frente a los defensivos Farma y Utilities que fueron los que más cayeron. Por el lado macro, en EE.UU. D. Trump advirtió que reducirá el precio de los fármacos entre un -30% y 80%. En materia arancelaria la reunión entre EE.UU. y China se habría saldado con “importantes avances”, acordando un mecanismo de consulta que en el pasado no fue de mucha ayuda. En Brasil la inflación de abril repuntó ligeramente y en línea con lo esperado hasta el 5,5% a/a. En China la inflación de abril retuvo el -0,1% interanual como se esperaba mientras que los precios de producción acentuaron su ritmo de contracción algo menos de lo previsto. En Rdos. de EE.UU. Alliant Energy mejor de lo esperado.
Qué esperamos para hoy
Las bolsas abrirían con ganancias cercanas al +1,0% con mejor comportamiento de los cíclicos. En estos momentos, los futuros del S&P 500 cotizan con subidas del +1,5% (el S&P 500 terminó el viernes con recortes del -0,2% con respecto al nivel al que estaba al cierre de las bolsas europeas). Los mercados asiáticos cotizan con subidas (CSI 300 chino +0,7%, Nikkei de Japón +0,3%).
Hoy detalles del acuerdo comercial entre EE.UU. – China. En México la producción industrial de marzo. En Rdos. de EE.UU. NRG Energy y Fox entre otros.
ESPAÑA
ALMIRALL. Rdos.1T’25 ligeramente por encima. Mantiene guidance’25. SOBREPONDERAR.
Rdos.1T’25 ligeramente por encima en EBITDA (71 M euros vs 68 M consenso y 69 M BS(e); +35% vs 1T’24) y con buena evolución de Ebglyss (ventas 19 M euros vs 17 M euros BS(e)) e Ilumetri (ventas +13% vs +14% BS(e)). Buen comportamiento de la DFN, que disminuyó 3 M euros hasta los 26 M euros (vs 11 M BS(e); 0,1x DFN/EBITDA). Mantiene su guidance’25 de crecimiento en ventas entre +10% y +13% (vs +12% consenso) y EBITDA entre 220/240 M euros, (punto medio 230 M euros; +19% vs 2024), en línea con el consenso (227 M euros). No descartamos acogida positiva, pero limitada tras haber subido +19% en 2025 (+2% vs IBEX).
EUROPA
UNICREDIT. Rdos. 1T’25 mejores de lo esperado. Revisamos P.O. +21% hasta 59,59 euros/acc. SOBREPONDERAR.
Rdos. mejores en comisiones, ROF y provisiones que llevan a batir +19% en BDI. El ROTE del 1T’25 sin ajustar se sitúa en 22% vs 17,7% a 4T’24 (26% ajustado a 13% CET1). El CET1 1T’25 se sitúa en 16,1% vs 15,9% a 4T’24 Mejora el guidance de BDI’25 desde similar a 2025 hasta ~9.300 M euros (vs 9.000 M euros estimado por nosotros y consenso). No comenta nuevas decisiones sobre la OPA a BPM. Esperamos una reacción positiva en mercado (performance muy en línea con el de su sector en el último trimestre (+18% vs +17%)). Revisamos ingresos +6% a medio plazo con un impacto en BDI’27 de +21%. Con esto, revisamos P.O. +21% hasta 59,59 euros/acc.(+9% potencial) lo que implica una valoración implícita de 9,6x PER’27 y 1,9x P/TE’27.
Almirall is engaged in the acquisition, manufacture, storage, sale and mediation in the sale of pharmaceutical specialties and products and all manner of raw materials used to prepare pharmaceutical specialties and products. Also, Co. acquires, manufactures, storages, sales and mediates in the sale of cosmetics, chemical, biotechnological and diagnostic products for human, veterinary, agrochemical and food-industry use, as well as all manner of utensils, complements and accessories for the chemical, pharmaceutical and clinical industries. In addition, Co. is engaged in the acquisition, sale, lease, subdivision and development of land lots, land and properties of all kinds.
Banco Santander is a holding company, providing a range of financial products. Co.'s products and services include: retail banking business that covers all customer banking businesses; wholesale banking business; as well as asset management and insurance business. Co.'s principal operations are in Spain, the U.K., Portugal, Germany, Italy and Latin America. As of Dec 31 2014, Co.'s total assets amounted to Euro1,266,296,000,000 and total customer deposits amounted to Euro647,627,000,000.
Caixabank is an investment company based in Spain. Co. is involved in investment portfolio management activities across two areas: Services and Financial Business and Insurance. In the services area, Co. provides investment solutions for companies involved in the infrastructure, energy, services and entertainment sectors. In the financial business and insurance area, Co. is engaged in the investments for international banks, insurance and specialist financial services. Co. focuses most of its banking investments in India, China, the U.S., and Central and Eastern Europe with a particular interest in retail banking. Co. is also involved in the disinvestments activities.
Iberdrola is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, Co. operates in four segments: network business, which includes all the energy transmission and distribution activities, and other regulated activity originated in Spain, the U.K., the U.S. and Brazil; deregulated business, which includes electricity generation and sales businesses as well as gas trading and storage businesses carried on by Co. in Spain, Portugal, the U.K. and North America; renewable business, with activities related to renewable energies in Spain, the U.K., the U.S. and the rest of the world; and other businesses, including the engineering and construction businesses and the non-power businesses.
Indra Sistemas is engaged in the design, development, manufacture, assembly, repair, and installation of computer software and applications. Through its subsidiaries, Co. is engaged in consulting, graphic design and multimedia, web design and marketing, internet development and electronic trade, systems integration and hosting geared business to business and business to consumer, as well as in internet financing and electronic marketing. Co. serves defense and security, transport and traffic, energy and industry, telecom and media, finance and insurance, and public administration and healthcare markets. Co. operates primarily in Europe, the United States, Canada, and Latin America.
Neinor Homes SA, formerly Neinor Homes SLU, is a Spain-based company engaged in the real estate sector. The Company focuses on the design, construction and promotion of residential properties. It develops housing projects in various Spanish cities, such as Malaga, Madrid, Barcelona, Cordoba, Vizcaya, Alicante, Almeria and Gerona.
Unicredit is a pan-European commercial banking group based in Italy. Co. is engaged in the provision of in-branch and online corporate and investment banking services, providing customers with access to banks in 14 core markets as well as to an another 18 countries worldwide. Co.'s operations are organized along six business lines: Commercial Banking Italy; CEE Division; CIB; Commercial Banking Germany; Commercial Banking Austria; and Asset Gathering. Co.'s European banking network includes Italy, Germany, Austria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Serbia and Turkey.
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