AMADEUS: 3Q’20 RESULTS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)
3Q'20 vs. 3Q'19 Results:Sales: € 419.0 M (-70.1% vs. -66.4% BS(e) and -71.6% consensus);
EBITDA: € 2.0 M (-99.6% vs. -98.2% BS(e) and € -29.0 M consensus);
Net Profit: € -157.0 M (€ 323.0 M in 9M'19 vs. € -125.0 M BS(e) and € -224.0 M consensus);
9M'20 vs. 9M'19 Results:
Sales: € 1.7 Bn (-59.9% vs. -58.7% BS(e) and -60.4% consensus);
EBITDA: € 196.4 M (-88.8% vs. -88.4% BS(e) and -90.6% consensus);
Net Profit: € -246.2 M (€ 989.7 M in 9M'19 vs. € -214.2 M BS(e) and € -313.2 M consensus);
The 3Q’20 results came in worse than our estimates in sales, but beating the consensus estimate in EBITDA (€ 2 M vs. € 10 M BS(e) and € -30 M consensus). The EBITDA figure excludes € 75 M of implementation costs from the restructuring programme announced by the company. By divisions, the largest impact has come in Distribution, where revenues plunged -85.3%, hit by the drop in travel bookings (-89.8%) and a worse price due to the mix between local/international travel. In IT Solutions the drop was lesser (-52%), with boarded passenger figures plunging -75%.
We highlight that the company’s liquidity stands at €~3.7 Bn pro forma (excluding € 500 M from a bond that matured in October), with cash totaling € 2.45 Bn. AMS has also indicated that in a scenario of a severe drop in air traffic (-80% in 4Q’20 and throughout 2021), it would expect to burn through around € -50/-100 M of cash monthly. Assuming the high end of that range, this would mean a cash flow of €~1.5 Bn (around 60% of current liquidity).
We do not expect a significant impact, as the results are slightly above the consensus and following the gains over the past few sessions (+16% in absolute terms, +8% vs. IBEX since 28/10). BUY. T.P. € 57.00/sh. (upside +22.27%).
Amadeus is a transaction processor for the global travel and tourism industry. Co. provides transaction processing power and technology solutions to both travel providers (including full service carriers and low-cost airlines, hotels, rail operators, cruise and ferry operators, car rental companies and tour operators) and travel agencies (both online and offline). Co. acts both as a worldwide network connecting travel providers and travel agencies through a processing platform for the distribution of travel products and services (through the Distribution business), and as a provider of a portfolio of IT solutions which automate certain business processes (through the IT solutions business).
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