AMADEUS: EVEN WITH THE VACCINE, THERE IS A LONG JOURNEY AHEAD (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)
Even with the vaccine, there is a long journey ahead. We change to SELL.The share price has soared +43% in absolute terms in the past month (+18% vs. IBEX), fuelled by the predictable availability of highly effective vaccines, already pricing in a recovery consistent with our central case scenario (we expect it to recover 2019 EBITDA levels in 2023). The closures linked to Covid-19 outbreaks have throttled the recovery we expected for 4Q’20, and thus we cut our EBITDA’21-15 estimate by -3%. Notwithstanding, we forecast less Capex’25-25e (-5%) and raise our T.P. to € 59.00/sh. (+4% vs. previously). Thus, given the lack of upside (-1% potential), we change our recommendation to SELL. To obtain additional +10% upside, we would have to assume normalised EBITDA levels +25% above those from 2019, which would mean an even faster recovery of revenues (which does not quite seem reasonable given the current uncertainties).
Amadeus is a transaction processor for the global travel and tourism industry. Co. provides transaction processing power and technology solutions to both travel providers (including full service carriers and low-cost airlines, hotels, rail operators, cruise and ferry operators, car rental companies and tour operators) and travel agencies (both online and offline). Co. acts both as a worldwide network connecting travel providers and travel agencies through a processing platform for the distribution of travel products and services (through the Distribution business), and as a provider of a portfolio of IT solutions which automate certain business processes (through the IT solutions business).
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