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AMADEUS: FY2020 RESULTS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

4Q'20 vs. 4Q'19 Results:
Sales: € 474.5 M (-64.6% vs. -67.8% BS(e) and -65.7% consensus);
EBITDA: € 31.4 M (-93.5% vs. -82.6% BS(e) and -95.1% consensus);
Net Profit: € -56.2 M (€ 280.5 M in FY2019 vs. € -165.8 M BS(e) and € -100.8 M consensus);
FY2020 vs. FY2019 Results:
Sales: € 2.174 Bn (-61.0% vs. -61.8% BS(e) and -61.3% consensus);
EBITDA: € 227.8 M (-89.9% vs. -87.5% BS(e) and -90.2% consensus);
Net Profit: € -302.4 M (€ 1.27 Bn in FY2019 vs. € -412.0 M BS(e) and € -347.0 M consensus);

The FY2020 results were poor, but in line with expectations. By divisions, the biggest impact came in Distribution, where revenues fell -77.1%, hit by the decrease in travel bookings (-78.9%). In IT Solutions the drop was smaller (-52%), with boarded passengers falling -65.4%. As for the cost-saving programme, the company indicates that it is on track to reach € 550 M of fixed cost savings in 2021 vs. 2019 (~25% of EBITDA’19).
We highlight the company’s liquidity position of €~3.5 Bn, with € 1.55 Bn of cash, and an available balance of € 1 Bn. The company points out that, in a scenario of sharp drops in traffic (-80% 2019 throughout 2021 and 2022), it would burn cash at a rate of between €-50 M and €-100 M/month, which is in line with its previous guidance. In 2020, net debt came in at € 3.07 Bn, in line with our expectations (vs. € 3.03 Bn BS(e)).
Lastly, the company has not provided a guidance’21, although it has mentioned that, after seeing a drop in January, bookings have improved again in February.
The lack of positive surprises could affect the reception after the stock outperformed the IBEX by +8% over the past week. At the current share price we do not see enough upside and keepo a cautious stance on the stock. SELL. T.P. € 59.00/sh. (upside +0.14%).