AMADEUS: UP IN THE AIR (ANÃLISIS BANCO SABADELL)
The gradual recovery of air traffic will continue to fuel the stock. BUY.AMS’ leading position in the market (we believe it will emerge stronger from this crisis) and robust financial position (NFD pro forma of 1.04x as of 31 March) after the rights issue made in April, should allow it to weather a 2020 that has been historically negative for the air sector, recovering gradually from the 2H’20 onwards. Thus, in our scenario of V-shaped recovery, which includes the IATA’s latest forecast (-55 drop in traffic in 2020 vs. -48% previously), we maintain our T.P. at € 54.00/sh., yielding +15% upside. We believe we might see an additional upside potential of between +5% and +10% if we assumed a pace of recovery more in line with the current growth rates (double digit growth in sales) for the new businesses (hotels, payments, etc.), which are not related to the air traffic sector, and on which we have taken a very prudent stance (+6% in sales from 2023 onwards).
Amadeus is a transaction processor for the global travel and tourism industry. Co. provides transaction processing power and technology solutions to both travel providers (including full service carriers and low-cost airlines, hotels, rail operators, cruise and ferry operators, car rental companies and tour operators) and travel agencies (both online and offline). Co. acts both as a worldwide network connecting travel providers and travel agencies through a processing platform for the distribution of travel products and services (through the Distribution business), and as a provider of a portfolio of IT solutions which automate certain business processes (through the IT solutions business).
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