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IBERIAN DAILY 08 MAY + 1Q’25 RESULTS. HIGHLIGHTS AND REST OF PREVIEWS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: AMADEUS, ELECTRICITY SECTOR, INDRA, OHLA, ROVI.


At the end of today’s report, and during the entire results season, we will include a presentation with positive and negative results highlights and previews for the 1Q’25 results to be released over the coming days in Spain.

The markets continue to digest the rally
European stock markets fell ahead of the Fed meeting, which kept interest rates unchanged, as expected. In the STOXX 600, the day’s winners were Household Goods and Media, whereas Retail and Pharma suffered the biggest losses. On the macro side, the Fed and J. Powell maintained the message of patience in view of the extreme uncertainty regarding inflation and employment. As for tariffs, today the Trump administration would announce an agreement with the UK and plans to carry out a thorough revision of all the microchip restrictions from the Biden administration. In Germany, March’s industrial orders rose much more than expected. In the euro zone, March’s retail sales contracted (in line) and the previous data was lowered. In Brazil, March’s industrial output rose more than expected and the BoB raised the reference rate by +50bps as expected to 14.75%. On the trade front, Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent suggested the meeting between China and the US this week will focus on deescalating the trade war more than on firm agreements. In US business results, The Mosaic beat expectations, Walt Disney was in line and Devon Energy released worse earnings than expected.
What we expect for today
Stock markets would open with gains of around +0.8%, with strong performance from value cyclicals. Currently, S&P futures are up +0.7% (the S&P 500 ended +0.2% higher vs. the European closing bell). Asian markets are rising (China’s CSI 300 +0.5% and Japan’s Nikkei +0.5%).
Today in the UK the BoE will meet, in Mexico we will learn April’s inflation and in the US weekly jobless claims. In US business results, Warner Bros, ConocoPhillips, Expedia, McKesson and Microchip Technology, among others, will release their earnings.


COMPANY NEWS

AMADEUS. 1Q’25 results in line, guidance’25 maintained. OVERWEIGHT
The 1Q’25 results were in line with expectations in sales (+9% vs. +9% BS(e) and +10% consensus), with all divisions showing performance in line. EBITDA is also fully in line with the consensus (€ 628 M, +7.9%) and slightly above our estimate of € 620 M. With this performance the company has maintained its guidance’25. We do not expect a significant impact from these results, which are very much in line with expectations. The stock has underperformed the IBEX by -15% in 2025.

ROVI 1Q’25 Results slightly above expectations. OVERWEIGHT
Guidance’25 unchanged 1Q’25 Results came in slightly above expectations on the operating level (EBITDA € 30 M vs. € 26 M BS(e) and € 27 M consensus; +17% vs. 1Q’24), where we stress the good performance of the heparin division (~44% sales; +24% 1Q’24) thanks to a concentration of orders on the quarter that should normalize throughout the year. NFD fell by € 8 M to € 77 M (~0.4x NFD/EBITDA), in line with our estimate (€ 73 M BS(e)). As for prospects, the company maintains its 2025 guidance of a ~-5% drop in operating revenues (vs. -5% BS(e)) and consensus). We do not foresee a relevant market impact despite the poor share price performance (-19% in 2025; -35% vs. IBEX).