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IBERIAN DAILY 30 APRIL + 1Q'26 RESULTS. HIGHLIGHTS AND REST OF PREVIEWS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: AMADEUS, AMPER, ARCELOR, BBVA, CAIXABANK, CELLNEX, ENCE, PUIG, REPSOL, SACYR.

At the end of today’s report, and during the entire results season, we will include a presentation with positive and negative results highlights and previews for the 1Q’26 results to be released over the coming days in Spain.

Fears of new US attack return
European and US markets fell ahead of the Fed meeting and the results releases of the Magnificent 4 in the US. In a falling STOXX 600, the best performing sectors were Telecoms and Technology, whereas Retail and Pharma saw the biggest losses. On the macro side, in Spain April’s inflation fell unexpectedly to 3.2% YoY, with the core figure falling to 2.8%. In Germany, April’s inflation rose to 2.9%, slightly less than expected. In the euro zone, March’s M3 sped up its YoY advance more than expected, with strong lending, whereas the economic sentiment index for April fell more than expected. In the US, as expected the Fed kept interest rates unchanged in the range of 3.5%-3.75%, but with a slightly more hawkish tone, Meanwhile, March’s preliminary durable goods orders rose far more than expected, suggesting dynamic capital goods investments in 1Q’26. In China, April’s manufacturing PMI was a positive surprise, almost repeating March’s level, while the non-manufacturing index fell more than expected. On the geopolitical front, Trump rejected the offer to reopen the Strait, and the press is mentioning the possibility of “strong” new attacks by the US to reopen it. In US business results, Alphabet (Google), Meta (Facebook) Ford Motor and Amazon.com beat expectations, Ebay and Microsoft were more in line.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with drops of around -1.0%, with cyclical sectors hit, except Energy. Currently, S&P futures are down -0.2% (the S&P 500 ended flat vs. the European closing bell). Asian markets are falling (China’s CSI 300 -0.1%, Japan’s Nikkei -1.1% and South Korea’s Kospi -0.9%).
Today in Spain and Germany we will learn the first reading of the 1Q’25 GDP, in the euro zone the ECB will meet, we will learn the 1Q’25 GDP and April’s preliminary inflation, in the UK the BoE will meet and in the US the 1Q’25 GDP. In US 1Q’26 business results, Caterpillar, Mastercard, Merck&Co, Sandisk and Apple, among others, will release their earnings.


COMPANY NEWS

AMPER. CMD assuming significant growth. M&A will materialize soon. We raise our estimates and T.P. OVERWEIGHT.
The new plan through 2028 assumes strong growth, as underscored by AMP’s relevant positioning in two megatrends with growth tailwinds: Defence and Energy. The company plans to reach: (i) € 800 M of sales (€ 600 M organically, +35% CAGR’25-28e) and (ii) € 130 M of EBITDA (€ 90 M organically, meaning +25% CAGR’25-28e). We raise our estimates: +9% in EBITDA over the 2026-28e period and +30% in cash (financials and CAPEX), as well as our T.P. to € 0.25/sh. (+37% vs. previous T.P.), yielding an appealing +33% upside.

ARCELORMITTAL. 1Q’26 results above expectations in EBITDA, with continued optimism about the improvement in Europe. OVERWEIGHT.
1Q’26 results above expectations in EBITDA (-3.7% vs. -8.6% BS(e) and -7.6% consensus), with a continued sequential improvement seen since 3Q’25 in EBITDA/q (US$ 131/q vs. 123 in 4Q’25 and 111 in 3Q’25), also above 1Q’25 levels (US$ 116/q), which is explained by better pricing in all regions. As for the situation in Europe (key for the share price), we do not see a robust rise in 1Q (due to some pressure in costs). Notwithstanding, the company outined that with the measures implemented (CBAM and tariffs expected starting in 01/07) it expects an improvement from the 2Q’26 onwards. That said, the confirmation of these messages, as well as the expectation of a price rise in the region will continue to be the main drivers going forward. The share price has outperformed the Ibex by +22% YtD even though it has slid -8.9% since the beginning of the war.

BBVA. Better 1Q’26 results in revenues. OVERWEIGHT.
The company has released better 1Q’26 results than expected (+6.6% in Net Profit) thanks to higher NII than expected (+4% vs. expected) and higher fee revenues (+2.6% vs. expected), despite reporting higher costs and provisions than expected (+3% and +8%, respectively). The ROTE’26 guidance was raised to >20% vs. 20.2% BS(e) and 20.1% consensus. We expect a limited positive reaction, as there were no big surprises in the main regions (Mexico and Spain). BBVA has come to these results having underperformed its sector over the past three months (-7% vs. sector).

CAIXABANK .Better 1Q’26 results thanks to taxes. We raise our T.P. UNDERWEIGHT
The company released 1Q’26 results beating expectations (+7.2% in Net Profit vs. expected) thanks to lower taxes (-6% vs. expected). Capital remains at 12.5% CET1 (vs. 12.56% in Dec’25) after announcing a € 500 M buyback programme (0.6% market cap), which was partly expected. The ROTE’26 guidance was raised from 18% to >18% (vs. +17.7% BS(e) and 18.2% consensus), and the rest of the targets were reiterated. We expect a reaction with a limited positive slant. CABK has come to these results having performed well vs. the sector (+4% in three months and +3% in six months). CABK is trading with a significant premium (adjusted for ROTE) of between +9% and +10% vs. domestic Spanish banks: 2.2x P/TE’26 for a ROTE’26 of 18%. We raise our T.P. +30% to € 10.90/sh. (+2% upside), meaning an implied valuation of 10.9x P/E’28 and 1.96x P/TE’28. Of the revision, +18% is justified by the revision of estimates (we raise Net Profit for the 2026-28 period by +13% and +17% recurrently), and the other +12% from lowering Ke from 11% to 10%.

CELLNEX. Robust 1Q’26 Results and in line. Better in cash. OVERWEIGHT.
1Q’26 sales totalled € 984 M (+4.7% organic pro-forma) with € 832 M of adjusted EBITDA (+6.4%) and € 595 M of EBITDAaL (+7.2%) with a 60.5% margin vs. 58.8% in 1Q’25). Cash generation came in above expectations, confirming the positive generation and the higher growth. Thus, FCF totalled € 118 M (vs. € 98 M expected and € -66 M in 1Q’25). The company confirmed its targets for 2026 and 2027. We do not expect a relevant impact from these robust results, which underscore the resilience and visibility of CLNX’s business model The share price has climbed +6% YtD (vs. +2.7% IBEX).

ENCE. Weak Results and in line, hit by situational factors. OVERWEIGHT
Results marked by the strike and technical stoppage of the Navia plant and by the temporary impact of January/February on the Renewable business. 1Q’26 sales came in at € 153.8 M (-17.7% vs. -13.9% BS(e)) and EBITDA at € 1.2 M (vs. € 0.9 M BS(e)). In short, results hit by situational factors that do not jeorpardise the annual estimates and targets. We would take advantage of a potential negative market impact to take positions in a stock we expect will benefit from pulp prices that continue to see a bullish trend.

PUIG BRANDS. Estée Lauder would consider TOB at € 18-19/sh. OVERWEIGHT
According to the press, Estée Lauder would consider launching a TOB on PUIG’s minority interests at a price of € 18.00-19.00/sh. (+4% vs. yesterday’s closing price and +19% vs. closing price prior to negotiations being announced). This would mean an exchange ratio of 3.5x (midpoint of the range) vs. 3.25x from our previous scenario (+12% premium over share price only for this part), and taking yesterday’s closing price for Estée Lauder, we would have a reference for PUIG in the possible bid of €~20/sh. (+28% vs. price prior to the negotiations). Furthermore, it would have offered co-chairmanship of the new group. Negative news, as although the cash option would remain on the table for minority shareholders and these levels still have a slight premium over the current share price, they are far from our previous scenario and our T.P.

REPSOL. 1Q’26 Results in line with expectations. UNDERWEIGHT
1Q’26 adjusted Net Profit would have totalled € 873 M (+34% vs. 1Q’25 and vs. +34% BS (e) and +37% consensus). By divisions: Upstream (44% EBIT'25) came in at € 302 M vs. € 313 M BS and consensus, Industrial (34% EBIT'25) at € 440 M vs. € 470 M BS (e ) and consensus; Commercial & Low Carbon (30% EBIT'25) € 156 M in line BS (e ) and consensus. REP has secured the continuation of energy supply, earmarking € 1.2 Bn to raise inventories (with higher impact on WC), leaving the 1Q’26 CFFO at € 1.04 Bn (vs. € 2.4 Bn ex WC) and NFD at € 4.8 Bn (vs. € 4.5 Bn 4Q’25) with 14.3% of leverage (NFD/(NFD+net assets) vs. 14% previously. With this in mind, the company reiterated the commitment of its strategic plan of increasing CFF+20% over the next 3 years to € 6.5 bn 2028 and 30-40% shareholder remuneration. We expect a limited impact from these results. In the Conference call (12:30 CET), REP should convey confidence in meeting its annual guidance as well as further visibility on WC, the refining margin against the current backdrop of the conflict in the Middle East, Venezuela or the liquidity event.

SACYR. 1Q’26 results above expectations on operating level and in line in cash. We raise our T.P. to € 5.30/sh. OVERWEIGHT.
The 1Q’26 results beat expectations in EBITDA (€ 327 M vs. € 316 M BS(e) and € 313 M consensus; +9% vs. 1Q’25) and were very much in line in Operating CF, which reached € 223 M (vs. € 221 M BS(e); +12% LfL). Recourse NFD rose by € 230 M to € 289 M (vs. € 258 M BS(e);