EUR 100.00 For Business Accounts Only

IBERIAN DAILY 08 FEBRUARY + 4Q’23 RESULTS. PREVIEWS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: ARCELOR MITTAL, CAF, CELLNEX, UNICAJA.

At the end of today’s report, and during the entire results season, we will include a presentation with previews for the 4Q’23 results to be released over the coming days in Spain.

The market questions rate cuts
European stock markets ended in negative territory amid doubts about rate cut prospects. In the STOXX 600, the gains of Technology and Automobiles stood out, whereas defensive sectors such as Household and Telecommunications saw the biggest drops. On the macro side, in Germany December’s industrial output slowed down more than expected, whereas it was in line in Spain. In Brazil, December’s retail sales fell more than expected. From the Fed, N. Kashkari suggested 2 or 3 rate cuts although admitting that the pace could be slower if the job market remains strong. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that public debt will reach the next fiscal year, seeing the maximum interest payment since 1940 (3.1% GDP). In China, January’s inflation fell more than expected although the monthly increase and production prices start to suggest that the worst may be over. In US business results, Walt Disney, Uber, PayPal and Hilton Worldwide came in better than expected.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with gains of between +0.3% and +0.5%. Currently, S&P futures are down -0.02% (the S&P 500 ended +0.08% higher vs. the European closing bell). Asian stock markets are rising (China’s CSI 300 +0.16%, Japan’s Nikkei +2.06%).
Today in the euro zone we will learn the minutes from the ECB meeting, in the US weekly jobless claims, and in Mexico January’s inflation and BoM meeting. In US business results, Philip Morris, ConocoPhillips, Duke Energy, Motorola and Snap-On, among others, will release their earnings.



COMPANY NEWS

ARCELORMITTAL. Results slightly better than expected. Positive outlook. BUY.
4Q’23 Results came in slightly better than expected in EBITDA (US$ 1.27 Bn vs. € 1.23 Bn BS(e) and US$ 1.2 Bn consensus), although slowing down vs. 3Q’23 due to lower average prices and deliveries. The bottom line of the P&L is marked by impairments and losses linked to Kazakhstan and ADI. With this in mind, debt is at extraordinarily low levels (US$ 2.9 Bn, 0.4x EBITDA). As for guidance, the company starts to see recovery signs with aggregated apparent consumption ex-China (+3/+4%) after the destocking phase is apparently over. In general, the group expects growth in all regions, which along with the more favourable price environment could fuel the share price.