IBERIAN DAILY 09 FEBRUARY + 4Q’22 RESULTS. HIGHLIGHTS AND PREVIEWS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)
NEWS SUMMARY: ARCELORMITTAL.
At the end of today’s report, and during the entire results season, we will include a presentation with positive and negative results highlights and previews for the 4Q’22 results to be released over the coming days in Spain.
IBEX continues its streak
It was a transitional session in Europe, lacking big macro references and with stock markets practically flat, where the IBEX stood out and neared a 20-month high. In the Euro STOXX, Chemicals and Pharma were the best relative performers, while Construction and Industrials suffered the biggest losses. From the ECB, I. Schnabel stated that the latest drops in inflation have not resulted from the Bank’s policy and that rates will remain in a restrictive area until inflation approaches the 2% target. Knot was in favour of a large rate hike in May if core inflation does not decrease. From the Fed, J. Williams stated that rates must continue to rise slightly above 5.0% in order to tackle inflation, whereas Waller warned of higher rates and for a longer period than what the market is considering. In US business results, Emerson Electric released worse earnings than expected, Fox was in line and Disney and Uber beat expectations.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with slight gains. Currently, S&P futures are up +0.4% (the S&P 500 ended -0.2% lower yesterday vs. the European closing bell). Volatility in the US rose (VIX 19.63). Asian markets are mixed (China’s CSI 300 +1.25% and Japan’s Nikkei -0.1%).
Today in the euro zone the European Council will meet, in the US we will learn weekly jobless claims, in Brazil and Mexico January’s inflation data and the Bank of Mexico will meet. In US business results, PepsiCo, Paypal, Philip Morris, Kellogg’s and Ralph Lauren, among others, will release their earnings.
COMPANY NEWS
ARCELORMITTAL. 4Q’22 Results in line in EBITDA, with the company foreseeing an improvement in apparent demand in 2023. BUY
The results were in line with the consensus in EBITDA (US$ 1.26 Bn vs. US$ 1.29 BS(e) and 1.26 consensus) in an environment of strong negative spread of cost-price. At the bottom line of the P&L statement, Net Profit came in clearly below expectations due to an impairment linked to its plant in Ukraine. With this in mind, the company foresees a recovery of apparent consumption of +2/+3% (vs. 2022), being cautious in China. Lastly, the group raised the dividend in cash to US$ 0.44/sh. (+15% vs. 2022; 1.5% yield). No surprises in EBITDA in these results with the positive message of the improvement of demand, which was already expected. Furthermore, debt remains under control thanks to the recovery of working capital in the 4Q.