EUR 100.00 For Business Accounts Only

IBERIAN DAILY 28 NOVEMBER (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: ACCIONA ENERGÍA, ARCELORMITTAL, CAIXABANK, IAG, INDITEX, OHLA, SANTANDER.

Stability for now
In the absence of references from the US due to Thanksgiving, European stock markets traded within a narrow sideways range. In the STOXX 600, Autos and Financial Services were the best performers whereas Pharma, Technology and Basic Resources were the only sectors that ended with drops. On the macro side, in the euro zone, October’s M3 remained at 2.8% YoY, in line with expectations, whereas November’s economic confidence index improved in line with expectations. The ECB minutes from the 30/10 meeting showed little rush to cut rates, as uncertainties remain high, awaiting newslflow. In Spain, the Congress did not pass the vote for the stability targets, which underscores the difficulties of the Spanish administration to approve the new budget. In Japan, November’s Tokyo core inflation was disappointing after remaining at the previous 2.8% YoY whereas October’s industrial output climbed unexpectedly and October’s retail sales also rose more than expected. On the geopolitical front, V. Putin cooled down expectations to end the war in Ukraine, as he is not considering the US peace plan but pledged to confirm in writing he will not attack Europe whereas Ukraine warns it will not hand territory to Russia.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with slight gains in a session expected to see low trading volume. Currently, S&P futures are up +0.10% (the S&P 500 was closed for holiday). Asian markets are mixed (China’s CSI 300 +0.08%, Japan’s Nikkei +0.10% and Kospi -1.48%).
Today in Germany we will learn October’s retail sales, November’s number of unemployed and preliminary inflation, in Spain November’s preliminary inflation and October’s retail sales, in Brazil and Mexico October’s unemployment rate.


COMPANY NEWS

IAG. Best in class within the sector. New T.P. € 5.40/sh. OVERWEIGHT
Despite having risen +28% in 2025 in absolute terms, the stock has underperformed the IBEX by -17% and Air France/Lufthansa by -5%/-12%, respectively. The latest drop came with the 3Q’25 results, where EBIT came in below expectations due to lower RASK due to the weakness in the US and Europe. In spite of this, we see no signs of a change in trend, and the 4Q’25e trading update suggests an improvement with a sequential increase in revenues and lower costs. With all this in mind, we raise our EBIT’25-27e estimates by +2% and raise capex’27 by around +12% to € 4.5 Bn due to a higher number of aircraft deliveries. Thus, we roll our model over to 2026 and cut WACC by -30bps, leaving our T.P. at € 5.40/sh. (+6% vs. previous; +19.2% upside), and we reiterate our OVERWEIGHT recommendation.

INDITEX. We expect robust 3Q’25 sales and confirmation of its targets’25. OVERWEIGHT
We foresee +7.8% LfL sales growth in 3Q’25 (to be released on 03/12), meaning normalisation in the second half of the quarter to a robust +7% level (vs. +9% outlined in its Aug/8 Sept trading update). On the reported level sales growth would fall to +3.8%, still hit by the FX effect. We expect some improvement in gross margin (+10bps to 61.6%), benefiting from the comparable basis, which along with tight cost control, will leave the EBIT margin at 22.9% (+7bps vs. 3Q’24). As for the 4Q’25 trading update (1-Nov/~1-Dec), we foresee a similar performance to that seen at the end of this 3Q’25, >+7%, whereas we do not expect any surprises in targets’25 (stability in gross margin BS(e) and consensus in line).

OHLA. 3Q’25 Results in line on the operating level and cash. We raise T.P. to € 0.47/sh., cutting our recommendation to UNDERWEIGHT
3Q’25 Results in line on the operating level (EBITDA € 29 M vs. € 31 M BS(e); -1% vs. 3Q’24), with a good performance of cash that remained practically stable on the quarter (net cash position € 311 M vs. € 319 M BS(e)). We raise our T.P. to € 0.47/sh., (+4% vs. previous T.P.; +9.7% upside) after revising our EBITDA’25-27e estimates by +4% based on the better performance of margins in Construction, downgrading our recommendation to UNDERWEIGHT until we see higher visibility on the appeal submitted against the unfavourable arbitral award of Chile’s mining project (US$ ~20 M) and the update on the Canalejas project value (in 4Q’25 Results) after the asset distribution with its partner. The share price has climbed +48% from June’25 lows (+29% vs. IBEX).

ARCELORMITTAL, OVERWEIGHT
France’s National Assembly yesterday approved a draft, proposed by Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s left-wing party, to nationalise MTS’s assets in France (~17% of MTS’s production in Europa and ~11% of the global production, as well as