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INFORME DIARIO 26 FEBRERO + RDOS. ESPAÑA Y EUROPA 4T’23. IDEAS DESTACADAS Y PREVIEWS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

COMPAÑÍAS QUE APARECEN EN EL INFORME: ESPAÑA: CAF, CIE AUTOMOTIVE, IBERDROLA, MAPFRE, SANTANDER, TELEFÓNICA. EUROPA: AXA.

Incluido en el informe diario de hoy, y durante toda la campaña de resultados, incorporamos al final una presentación con los resultados destacados en positivo y negativo y con los previews de Rdos. 4T’23 que se publicarán en España y Europa en los próximos días.

Los resultados impulsaron las bolsas a nuevos máximos
A excepción del FTSE 100, las bolsas cerraron la semana con avances y muchos de los principales índices del mundo registraron nuevos máximos históricos en parte gracias a los buenos resultados publicados. En el STOXX 600, Químicas, Autos y B. de Consumo lideraron las subidas (c. +3,0%) mientras que R. Básicos se desmarcó con caídas superiores al -2,0%. Por el lado macro, en Alemania el IFO repuntó en febrero ligeramente en línea con lo esperado. Mientras, la última encuesta del BCE reflejó un ligero repunte en las expectativas de inflación a 12 meses por parte de los consumidores. Desde el BCE, J. Nagel (Bundesbank) se mostró a favor de postergar cualquier recorte de tipos para la segunda mitad de año y esperar a conocer los datos del 2T’24. En Rdos. Empresariales en EE.UU. Warner Bros peor de lo esperado y Berkshire Hathaway mejor.
Qué esperamos para hoy
Las bolsas recogerían beneficios y cotizarían con caídas del -0,3%. En estos momentos, los futuros del S&P 500 cotizan con recortes del -0,10% (el S&P 500 terminó el viernes con caídas del -0,12% con respecto al nivel al que estaba al cierre de las bolsas europeas). Los mercados asiáticos cotizan mixtos (CSI 300 chino -0,93%, Nikkei de Japón +0,35%).
Hoy en EE.UU. venta de viviendas nuevas de enero e índice de la Fed de Dallas de febrero. En Rdos. Empresariales Domino’s Pizza, ONEOK entre otros.


ESPAÑA


CIE AUTOMOTIVE, COMPRAR
Los Rdos. están ligeramente por debajo en ventas pero son mejores de lo que esperábamos en márgenes (+150 pbs vs 2022 hasta 18,0% vs 17,2% BS(e)), de manera que el EBITDA crece un +13% en todo el ejercicio (vs +8% BS(e)). Ventas: 3.960 M euros (+3,1% vs +4,0% BS(e)); EBITDA: 713,2 M euros (+12,6% vs +8,2% BS(e)); BDI: 320,2 M euros (+6,7% vs +2,5% BS(e)). Por mercados geográficos, destaca el buen comportamiento en ventas de Norte América (+14%) y por el lado negativo China (-19%), en línea con lo visto a 9meses’23. Confirma sus objetivos de largo plazo (2025): (i) crecimiento en ventas de ~+20 p.p. por encima del mercado (+41% total 2020-25e; vs +41% BS(e) y +51% consenso) y (ii) un objetivo de margen EBITDA >19% (vs 18,2% BS(e) y 18,3% consenso). COMPRAR. P.O. 29,81 euros/acc. (potencial +21,2%).
Underlyings
AXA
AXA

AXA is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, Co. is engaged in insurance and assets management. Co. operates primarily in Europe, North America, the Asia-Pacific Region and, to a lesser extent, in other regions including the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America. Co. has five operating business segments: Life & Savings, Property & Casualty, International Insurance, Asset Management, and Banking. In addition, various holding companies within the AXA Group conduct certain non-operating activities. As of Dec 31 2013, Co. had total assets of Euro757,143,000,000.

Banco Santander S.A.

Banco Santander is a holding company, providing a range of financial products. Co.'s products and services include: retail banking business that covers all customer banking businesses; wholesale banking business; as well as asset management and insurance business. Co.'s principal operations are in Spain, the U.K., Portugal, Germany, Italy and Latin America. As of Dec 31 2014, Co.'s total assets amounted to Euro1,266,296,000,000 and total customer deposits amounted to Euro647,627,000,000.

CIE Automotive S.A.

CIE Automotive is the parent company of an industrial group formed by several companies that are engaged in the design, manufacture and sale of automobile component and sub-units on the world market. In addition, Co. is also engaged in the bio-fuels business which is in the initial stages of development and is made up of various companies devoted to the production and distribution of bio-fuels.

ENCE Energia y Celulosa SA

Ence Energia Y Celulosa is engaged in the manufacture and commercialization of wood pulp and derivatives. Co. divides its activities into the following two business lines: Forest Division: Co. manages timberlands in South America and the Iberian Peninsula. Co. is involved in trading of wood, and supplies solid wood products including: plywood, sawn timber, parquet flooring and glued-edge paneling. Co. is involved in forest and environmental consulting. Pulp Division and Energy Production: Co. is engaged in the production of Eucalyptus globulus-based TCF and ECF paper pulp. Co. is also involved in the generation of electricity through biomass power producing plants.

Iberdrola SA

Iberdrola is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, Co. operates in four segments: network business, which includes all the energy transmission and distribution activities, and other regulated activity originated in Spain, the U.K., the U.S. and Brazil; deregulated business, which includes electricity generation and sales businesses as well as gas trading and storage businesses carried on by Co. in Spain, Portugal, the U.K. and North America; renewable business, with activities related to renewable energies in Spain, the U.K., the U.S. and the rest of the world; and other businesses, including the engineering and construction businesses and the non-power businesses.

Mapfre SA

Mapfre is an insurance company based in Spain. Co. is the parent company of a group engaged in the underwriting and provision of insurance in Spain and abroad. Insurance policies provided include: life, non-life, accident, home-owner, general and health. Through its subsidiaries, Co. is also engaged in the provision of reinsurance, the management of investment funds, pension funds and pension plans, real estate and related services. On the domestic market, Co.'s activities include managing investment funds, pension funds and pension plans, real estate and other service businesses.

Provider
Sabadell
Sabadell

Analysts
Research Department

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