EUR 100.00 For Business Accounts Only

IBERIAN DAILY 01 AUGUST (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: CELLNEX, IBERDROLA, REDEIA, SANTANDER.

Trade matters put Europe in the red once again
European stock markets fell due to trade matters. After the 01 August deadline passed, a 35% tariff was placed on Canada, 50% on Brazil, 25% on India, 20% on Taiwan and 39% on Switzerland, with another 69 trade partners facing tariffs between 10-41% if new agreements are not reached. As for Mexico, the country will continue to have a 25% tariff due to fentanyl, 25% on automobiles and 50% on steel, aluminium and copper while negotiations continue. In the STOXX 600, the winners on the day were financials like Insurance and Banks, whereas cyclicals like Autos and Basic Materials saw the biggest corrections. On the macro side, in Germany unemployment remained at July’s levels (better), whereas July’s inflation repeated at 2.0%, above expectations. In the euro zone, June’s unemployment rate also repeated at the previous level. In the US, weekly jobless claims rose, but less than expected and June’s personal consumption rallied more than expected. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) rose to 2.6%, while the core figure remained at 2.8%. In US business results, Everest Group, Biogen and FirstEnergy beat expectations, Mastercard was in line, and with the market closed, Apple and Amazon.com beat expectations.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with losses, hurt by the tariff increases. Currently, S&P futures are down -0.16% (the S&P 500 ended down -0.70% vs. the European closing bell). Asian markets are falling (China’s CSI 300 -0.25% and Japan’s Nikkei -0.63%).
Today in the euro zone we will learn July’s final manufacturing PMI and July’s inflation, in the US non-farm job creation, unemployment rate and salary gains (all for July), June’s construction spending, July’s manufacturing ISM and July’s final U. Michigan consumer confidence. In US business results Moderna, Colgate-Palmolive, Linde, Exxon Mobil and Chevron, among others, will release their earnings.




COMPANY NEWS

CELLNEX. Solid results. in line in sales/EBITDA and better in cash. OVERWEIGHT
The 1H’25 sales reached € 1.94 Bn (+1.1% reported vs. +1% BS(e) and +1.1% consensus. but in organic terms this means +6% growth) and EBITDAaL came in at € 1.16 Bn (+3.7% reported and +8.1% organic. also in line with expectations). RLFCF totalled € 481 M in 2Q’25 (+27.9%). far above both our estimate (+13%) and the consensus (+18%). thanks to a positive WC contribution and lower cash taxes. which means a significant improvement vs. 1Q’25 (-8.6%). The company maintains its 2025 and long-term guidance. Given the stock’s very lacklustre performance in 2025 (+2% and -21% vs. IBEX). we expect a positive impact from these results.

IBERDROLA. Sale of the Mexican business to grow in transmission grids. OVERWEIGHT.
IBE has agreed to sale its Mexican business to COX ABG Group to speed up its investment plan through 2031 (in transmission grids in the US and the UK). preserving its financial robustness and dividend policy. The deal values the EV of its Mexican business at US$ 4.17 Bn (€ 3.64 Bn/2.3% EV; 3.6% market cap; 6.8% NFD). including 2.6GW of installed capacity (4.5% total). in both thermal (1.4GW) and renewable assets (1.2GW). as well as the commercialising company and a renewable project backlog. Although the weight of Mexico is already small (2% EV/EBITDA’25e) after the sale of 55% in 2023 the price of this transaction would be appealing in EV/MW (around € 1.4/MW or € 0.95/MW BS (e)). which would mean +1.1% in out T.P.