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IBERIAN DAILY 01 DECEMBER (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: IAG, MAPFRE, SANTANDER, TELEFÓNICA.

Between monetary policy and a possible Ukraine-Russia peace treaty
With the only US macro reference being the Fed’s Beige Book, the markets saw a transitional week due to Black Friday. European markets ended the week with gains, rallying from support levels and seeking 2025 highs, with the Ukraine-Russia peace talks continuing to be in the spotlight. In the STOXX 600, Basic Resources and Construction led the gains, with Food and Household Goods ending with the smallest gains. On the macro side, in Germany October’s retail sales fell -0.3%, when a +0.2% increase was expected (weaker consumption levels than expected), the number of unemployed in November rose by only +1,000 vs. 5,000 expected, keeping the unemployment rate at 6.3% (better than expected). Inflation came in at +2.3% YoY, in line with forecasts. In Spain, November’s inflation reached +3.0%, slightly above the +2.9% expected, and the harmonised figure also beat expectations, coming in at +3.1%. October’s retail sales grew +3.8%, below the +4.2% forecast. In Brazil and Mexico, October’s unemployment rate came in below expectations in both countries. In China, the manufacturing PMI recovered in November, as expected, to 49.2 (vs. the previous 49.0), whereas the services index was disappointing, standing below 50.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with losses of around -0.5%, with the leisure sector hit by Trump’s statement of Venezuelan airspace being closed. Currently, S&P futures are down -0.7% (the S&P 500 ended flat vs. the European closing bell). Asian markets are mixed (China’s CSI 300 +0.87%, Japan’s Nikkei -1.95% and Kospi -0.29%).
Today in Spain we will learn November’s manufacturing PMI, in the euro zone November’s final manufacturing PMI, in the US November’s final manufacturing PMI, September’s construction spending and November’s manufacturing ISM.