IBERIAN DAILY 11 NOVEMBER + 3Q'25 RESULTS. HIGHLIGHTS AND REST OF PREVIEWS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)
NEWS SUMMARY: SANTANDER.At the end of today’s report, and during the entire results season, we will include a presentation with positive and negative results highlights and previews for the 3Q’25 results to be released over the coming days in Spain.
Expectations about the end of the US shutdown next Friday fuelled stock markets
Several Democratic senators voted in the end in favour of maintaining the government funding through 30 January without obtaining any health concessions by the Republicans. The final resolution was approved yesterday by the Senate with 8 Democrats voting in favour and will be ratified on Wednesday by Congress. The Administration being reopened by the end of the week was welcomed by stock markets with significant gains. In the STOXX 600, most sectors closed with gains, led by cyclical sectors, mainly Banks, with only two sectors ending with slight losses, Telecoms and Real Estate. On the macro side, in the euro zone November’s Sentix investment confidence index fell more than expected. In trade news, Switzerland would be close to reaching an agreement with the US for 15% tariffs vs. the 39% imposed in August. In US business results, Tyson Foods beat expectations.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with slight gains of +0.3%. Currently, S&P futures are down -0.06% (the S&P 500 ended +0.57% higher vs. the European closing bell). Asian markets are sliding (China’s CSI 300 -0.8% and Japan’s Nikkei -0.2%).
Today in the euro zone and Germany we will learn November’s ZEW index, in the US October’s NFIB SMEs confidence index, in Brazil October’s inflation and in Mexico September’s industrial output. In US business results, no earnings will be released today.
COMPANY NEWS
SANTANDER. Studies the sale of 13% of Santander Poland. OVERWEIGHT
According to the press, SAN would have hired Goldman Sachs and Citi to analyse the sale of its remaining stake in Santander Polska (13%, after it sold 49% to Erste in May for € 7 Bn), which would be valued at € ~1.6/1.9 Bn vs. our € 1.8 Bn valuation. According to this source, SAN would be studying the possibility of selling this 13% stake through an accelerated placement on the open market. Positive news but partially expected and with limited impact. We estimate that the sale of this 13% stake would generate around € 500 M of capital gains, which would have a positive impact on capital of ~8bps (extrapolating the impact from the sale in May, ~25bps if we also consider the deconsolidation of RWAs) vs. 13.09% released in September’25.
Banco Santander is a holding company, providing a range of financial products. Co.'s products and services include: retail banking business that covers all customer banking businesses; wholesale banking business; as well as asset management and insurance business. Co.'s principal operations are in Spain, the U.K., Portugal, Germany, Italy and Latin America. As of Dec 31 2014, Co.'s total assets amounted to Euro1,266,296,000,000 and total customer deposits amounted to Euro647,627,000,000.
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