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IBERIAN DAILY 29 APRIL + 1Q’25 RESULTS. PREVIEWS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: INDRA, INSURANCE SECTOR, METROVACESA, PUIG BRANDS, SANTANDER, UNICAJA, VISCOFAN


At the end of today’s report, and during the entire results season, we will include a presentation with positive and negative results highlights and previews for the 1Q’25 results to be released over the coming days in Spain.

The IBEX resists despite the power outage
Stock markets kicked off the week with gains, and with the IBEX close to 2008 highs after exceeding 13,400 points. In the STOXX 600, the best-performing sectors were Pharma and Banks, and the only ones in negative numbers were Media and Technology. On the macro side, in Spain the 1Q’25 unemployment rate rose more than expected to 11.3%, whereas March’s retail sales repeated at the same YoY level as in February. In the US, the Dallas Fed manufacturing index for April fell more than expected to a low since May’20. The Treasury raised its forecast issuances for 2Q’25 to US$ 514 Bn. In Mexico, February’s unemployment rate fell more than expected to 2.2%. In US business results, Domino’s Pizza beat expectations and Roper Technologies was in line.
What we expect for today
Stock markets would open flat, with a slightly bullish slant that could reverse to profit taking throughout the session. Currently, S&P futures are up +0.07% (the S&P 500 ended +0.67% higher vs. the European closing bell). Asian markets are sliding (China’s CSI 300 -0.3% and Japan’s Nikkei is closed).
Today in the euro zone we will learn April’s economic confidence index and March’s M3, in Spain the 1Q’25 GDP and April’s inflation and in the US April’s consumer confidence and March’s JOLTS. In US business results, General Motors, Paypal, Coca-Cola, Pfizer and Booking, among others, will release their earnings.


COMPANY NEWS

METROVACESA. Solid 1Q’25 operating data, but with no upside following the sharp rise. We downgrade to UNDERWEIGHT.
From the 1Q’25 trading statement we highlight the solid presales data (+2% in M euros), showing a sharp increase to the average price (+14%), although with lower volumes (-11%) due to a margin-optimisation strategy. Development revenues fell -43% due to the timing of the deliveries in 2025. MVC reiterates its guidance for the full year. We raise our T.P. +9% to 11.01/sh. (+2% upside) after adjusting the model to the end of Dec’24 (including the asset appraisal). Although we think the trading statement is positive, we downgrade our recommendation to UNDERWIGHT, as after the strong performance in 2025 (+23%), we see little upside potential.

PUIG BRANDS. Better 1Q’25 sales, 2025 targets unchanged. We cut T.P. to € 26.00/sh. OVERWEIGHT
1Q’25 sales came in better than expected, with +7.5% LfL growth (vs. ~+7% BS(e)), fuelled by Fragrances (~74% sales; +10.4% LfL vs. +7.5% BS(e)), and Americas (~37% sales; +11.8% LfL). As expected, Make-up (~14% sales) falls around -6% LfL (hit by the weakness in the US segment and the impact from the voluntary withdrawal of a CT product through February). The company kept its 2025 targets unchanged: +6%/+8% LfL in sales (vs. +10.9% in 2024 and >+7% consensus) and improvement in adjusted EBITDA margin of around +20bps(vs. +10bps consensus). We revise our estimates, assuming a growth normalization scenario of +6.5% LfL in 2025/28e (vs. ~+8% prev), with a 5% cut to EBITDA’25/28e, setting our T.P. at € 26.00/sh. (-9% vs. previous T.P. and >+50% upside). We expect a positive market reaction thanks to the continued robustness of Fragrances still against a more moderate growth backdrop in the sector. The share price has slid -7% in absolute terms in 2025 (-25% vs. Ibex and vs. +11% L’Oréal or -13% Interparfums).

UNICAJA. We raise our T.P. +25% following the 1Q’25 results. UNDERWEIGHT
Yesterday we raised our T.P. by +25% to € 1.67/sh. (-3% potential) after the 1Q’25 results came in slightly better than expected on the operating level, but with a 2025 bank tax that will be well below expectations: € 20-30 M on the year vs. € 41 M expected. We raise fee revenues, but also costs, meaning that on the net level there is little change (+2.1% in Net Profit’27). Although we hardly change our estimates, we raise our T.P. +25% to € 1.67/sh. After recognising 100% of excess capital (25% previously), maintaining our UNDERWEIGHT recommendation. UNI continues to trade at low P/TE levels (0.7x), which we consider justified given its low ROTE (~8.8% in 2025 adjusted for excess capital / 7.7% excluding the adjustment).

VISCOFAN. 1Q’25 EBITDA below expectations. OVERWEIGHT.
1Q’25 results showed strong EBITDA growth although below expectations (+11.9% vs. +15.4% BS(e) and +18.7% consensus) due to worse margins (22.4% vs. 23.3% BS(e) and 23.7% consensus), although improving vs. 1Q’24 (+110bps.). Revenues grew +6%, as expected, where volume rose in all technologies and regions. The company kept its 2025 guidance unchanged. We expect a negative market reaction as results are below expectations and despite the strong profitability growth.