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IBERIAN DAILY 29 APRIL + 1Q’26 RESULTS. HIGHLIGHTS AND REST OF PREVIEWS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: ENDESA, METROVACESA, PUIG BRANDS, REDEIA, SANTANDER, SOLARIA.

At the end of today’s report, and during the entire results season, we will include a presentation with positive and negative results highlights and previews for the 1Q’26 results to be released over the coming days in Spain.

IBEX resisting thanks to banks
European stock markets were in the red after a poor opening in the US, where doubts dragged down the semiconductor sector following the rally from the past few weeks and in view of the disappointing monthly sales of OpenAI. In the STOXX 600, the best-performing sectors were Banks and Utilities, while Technology and Basic Materials posted the biggest losses. On the macro side, in Spain the unemployment rate rose unexpectedly to 10.8% in 1Q’26, while March’s retail sales rose more than expected. In the US, April’s Conference Board consumer confidence rose unexpectedly. Separately, the UAE announced that it will leave OPEC and OPEC+ starting on 01 May in protest of the war in the Middle East. On the geopolitical front, Trump insists that nuclear matters with Iran must be tackled from the beginning, warning its allies to be prepared for a protracted blockade of the strait. China will resume petrol exports in May. In US business results, General Motors Starbucks, Booking and Visa beat expectations, Coca-Cola and S&P Global were in line.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with slight drops. Currently, S&P futures are up +0.2% (the S&P 500 ended +0.2% higher vs. the European closing bell). Asian markets are rising (China’s CSI 300 +0.7%, Japan’s Nikkei is closed and South Korea’s Kospi +0.5%).
Today in Spain and Germany we will learn April’s preliminary inflation, in the euro zone March’s M3 and April’s final consumer confidence and in the US the Fed will meet. In US 1Q’26 business results, Alphabet (Google), Ford Motor, Amazon.com, Meta (Facebook) and Microsoft, among others, will release their earnings.


COMPANY NEWS

METROVACESA, UNDERWEIGHT
The trading update shows strong growth in total revenues (+66%) due largely to the fact that the comparison was very weak (hardly any land sales and with a very low average delivery price in 1Q’25).
Residential developments saw revenues rise +20% (with fewer deliveries, but at a much higher price thanks to the product mix (+35%)) to € 92 M, whereas land sales totaled € 37 M (vs. € 1 M in 1Q’25). We also highlight the gross margin in residential developments, at 27.0% vs. 22.5% in 1Q’25 (due to the aforementioned improved mix).
As for 1Q’26 presales, they totaled 283 units vs. 452 units in 1Q’25. The company attributes the drop to price discipline and the confidence stemming from the fact of having very high delivery coverage (91%/73%/34% in 2026/27/28, respectively).
Additionally, MVC has announced the dates of the € 0.90/sh. (+96% vs. 2024; vs. € 0.46/sh. BS(e); 8.2% yield) final dividend’25 payment on 22 May (ex date 20 May). Total DPS’25 € 2.02/sh. (+156% vs. 2024; 18.4% yield).
The revenues data and the improved margins are a positive point in our view, although the presales data is not good, even assuming MVC is in no rush to sell product. The 1Q’26 presales data represents 5.4% of marketed product the previous quarter, vs. 7.3% on average over the past two years.

REDEIA, OVERWEIGHT
1Q’26 Results in line. 1Q’26 EBITDA totalled € 338.8 M (+5.8% vs. 1Q’25; vs. +4.3% BS (e ) and +2.8% consensus; bearing in mind the higher revenues due to a depreciation regulatory change in some unit values with retroactive effect since 2022 (offset with higher depreciations). 1Q’26 Net Profit came in at € 140.3 M (+1.8% vs. 1Q’25 vs. +1.6% consensus and +1% BS (e ). These results are in line with the guidance: EBITDA > € 1.25 Bn (in line BS(e) and consensus) and Net Profit > € 510 M (vs. € 508 BS(e) and consensus). 1Q’26 NFD totalled € 5.57 Bn vs. € 5.48 Bn 4Q’25 (vs. € 5.7 Bn guidance).
We do not foresee any impact from these results. RED shar price has shed -0.4% YTD vs. +3.9% IBEX, we maintain our OVERWEIGHT recommendation based on its upside (+25%) and the dividend sustainability (5% yield). As for the blackout we believe that the activation of any legal process will take time, and this will be probably diluted among the many parties sued. No conference call will be held.

SANTANDER. 1Q’26 results slightly above expectations. Solid capital data. NPL ratio rising. OVERWEIGHT
The results were better than expected in Net Profit thanks to better revenues (+0.9% vs. expected), lower costs (-1.3% vs. expected) and despite having included an unexpected provision of € 207 M due to the car loan case in the UK. Better capital data (14.4% CET1) thanks to the contribution of +42bps from markets/others. CoR is under control (114bps), but the NPL ratio rose to 3% vs. 2.91% in Dec’25 due to Openbank Europe (from 2.53% to 2.64%) and Argentina (from 7.7% to 10%). The guidance’26 was maintained. We expect a rather neutral reaction. SAN has come to these results having outperformed the sector over the past three months (-1% vs. -4% sector).

SOLARIA. Capital increase and sale of treasury stock. UNDERWEIGHT
The company has announced a capital increase (6.15% of capital; no preemptive rights) along with the sale of treasury stock (3.85% of capital) through an accelerated bookbuild at a price of € 24.00/sh. (around -5% vs. closing price). The funds raised (€~300 M) will be used to finance SLR’s transformation announced in the CMD’25 (batteries, data centres, etc.), as well as to strengthen the balance sheet. The company has pledged not to issue or sell shares over a 90-day period. Although we welcome the deal’s aim, we are surprised that it comes through a capital increase, given that in the CMD’25 the company indicated it had (or has identified) the necessary sources of financing for this transformation, even mentioning excess capital and the capacity for shareholder remuneration.