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IBERIAN DAILY 20 APRIL + 1Q’23 RESULTS. HIGHLIGHTS AND REST OF PREVIEWS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: BANKINTER.

At the end of today’s report, and during the entire results season, we will include a presentation with positive and negative results highlights and previews for the 1Q’23 results to be released over the coming days in Spain.

Europe remains unstoppable
Despite the mixed US business results and doubts on the upcoming Fed meeting, Europe continued on a roll, with the Ibex close to recovering all that was lost during the banking crisis. Thus, within the Euro STOXX, the best-performing sectors were Food and Insurance vs. Technology and Real Estate, which were the worst relative performers. On the macro side, in the Euro zone, March’s final general and core inflation confirmed the preliminary 6.9% and 7.5% YoY figures. In the United Kingdom, inflation slowed less than expected in March to 10.1% YoY, with core inflation flat at 6.2%. In the US, the Fed’s Beige Book depicted stagnating activity, price moderation but a very robust job market. In China, as expected, the PBoC kept 1&5Y loan interest rates unchanged at 3.65% and 4.3%, respectively. In 1Q’23 US business results, Morgan Stanley and Tesla (with the announcement that it will continue to lose margin in order to gain market share) were in line, IBM better than expected and US Bancorp released disappointing figures.
What we expect for today
The European stock markets would open with slight drops in a session marked by business results. Currently, S&P futures are down -0.33% (the S&P 500 ended +0.14% higher vs. the European closing bell). Volatility in the US fell (VIX 16.46). Asian markets are mixed (China’s CSI 300 -0.54% and Japan’s Nikkei +0.3%).
Today we will learn in the euro zone April’s consumer confidence, in the US March’s second-hand home sales and April’s Philadelphia Fed, and in Mexico February’s retail sales. In US business results, Philip Morris, American Express and KeyCorp, among others, will release their earnings. In debt auctions: Spain (€ 6.5 Bn in bonds due 2029, 2033 and 2048).


COMPANY NEWS

BANKINTER. 1Q’23 Results far above expectations in all business lines. BUY.
1Q’23 Results far above expectations in all activity levels. NII rose by +63% vs. 1Q’22 and vs. +54% consensus, with lending growing by +5% and the client spread increasing to 2.96% vs. 2.54% in 4Q’22. The deposit beta came in at 10% (below the ~25% guidance’23). Very good performance in fee revenues. The banking tax totalled € 77 M. Costs increased by ~6% vs. 1Q’22,