EUR 100.00 For Business Accounts Only

IBERIAN DAILY 09 MARCH (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: BANKINTER, BBVA, INDITEX.

Middle East conflict shoots oil prices skyward and drags down markets
It was a week of volatility on global stock markets, where the fear of an energy crisis stemming from the Middle East conflict marked the pace of the markets’ performance. In the STOXX 600, all sectors ended in the red, where Energy and Media were the best performers (smallest drops), while Construction and Basic Materials posted the biggest losses (nearly -7%). On the macro side, in the euro zone, the final 4Q’26 GDP was unexpectedly lowered to +0.2% QoQ. In the US, non-farm job creation fell unexpectedly by -92,000 in February, and the unemployment rate rose more than expected to 4.4%. In China, February’s inflation rose more than expected. In geopolitics, Kuwait, Iraq and the UAE reduced crude oil production amid increased bombings of oil facilities in Iran. The countries of the G7 have considered beginning to release oil reserves and reduce taxes on fuels (Italy, UK).
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with drops of around -4.0%. Currently, S&P futures are down -1.48% (the S&P 500 ended -0.4% lower vs. the European closing bell). Asian markets are falling (China’s CSI 300 -1.0%, Japan’s Nikkei -5.15% and South Korea’s Kospi -6.16%).
Today in Germany we will learn January’s industrial output, in the euro zone March’s Sentix index and in Mexico inflation and core inflation for February.



COMPANY NEWS

BANKINTER. New top pick in domestic banks. T.P. € 16.84/sh. (+27% upside). OVERWEIGHT
Although our favourite could be Caixabank due to the strong revision of its guidance with the results release, following a solid performance (+10% vs. BKT in six months), it is now trading at 2x P/TE’26 vs. 1.9x for BKT, despite the fact that BKT has set a ROTE’26 target of 20% (20.6% BS(e) and 18.4% consensus) and Caixabank 18% (17.9% BS(e) and 18.1% consensus). We raise our T.P. for BKT +24% to € 16.84/sh., meaning multiples of 11.1x P/E’28 and 2x P/TE’28. In Caixabank and Unicaja we do not see the same appeal as in BKT, despite the fact that we will raise our 2026-28 estimates (+14.6% in Net Profit for Caixabank and +14.1% in Unicaja) and will lower Ke from 11% to 10%. We expect to raise our T.P. for Caixabank by +31% to € 11/sh. (+10% upside) and +24% in Unicaja to € 2.80/sh. (+10% upside).

INDITEX. We expect solid 4Q’25 results and good indications from the trading update. OVERWEIGHT
We expect continuity in 4Q’25 LfL sales (to be released on 11/03) vs. the indications given at the beginning of the quarter, with around +8.5% growth (around +4.5% on the reported level due to the FX effect). In gross margin we expect a slight improvement of around +15bps to 54.1%, which along with costs under control (slightly positive opex/sales spread), will allow the EBIT margin to rise around +30bps to 17.1% (EBIT around +6%). We expect strong indications for 1Q’26 (February to around 09 March), with sales seeing high-single-digit growth (around +9%), a target’26 of a stable gross margin (+/-50bps; BS(e) and consensus in line) and a minimum DPS’25 of € 1.76/sh. (+5% vs. 2024; 3.4% yield), which should be received positively on the share price (which has shed around -8% in 2026, -7% vs. IBEX 35).