EUR 100.00 For Business Accounts Only

IBERIAN DAILY 12 SEPTEMBER (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: BANKING SECTOR, BBVA, LIBERBANK, MERLIN PROPERTIES

MARKETS YESTERDAY AND TODAY

All eyes on the ECB
European markets rallied, underpinned by the dollar’s depreciation ahead of the ECB meeting, with the IBEX 35 standing alone (-3.9%) in view of the poor results released by Inditex. Within the Euro Stoxx, the biggest gains came in Travel & Leisure and Chemicals, whereas Energy (in view of the sharp drops in Brent crude prices) and Banks ended with the biggest drops. On the macro side, in Spain industrial output fell more than expected in July, with the drop in equipment goods standing out. In the euro zone, the press leaked that the ECB will cut its growth forecasts and will push back the timeline for meeting the inflation target. In the UK, the judges of the Scottish Court ruled that the prorogation of the UK Parliament is unlawful, although the final decision will depend on the Supreme Court. In the US, August’s production prices came in +0.1% above expectations, In politics, Trump once again called for the Fed to cut rates to 0% and in a goodwill gesture he will postpone the additional 5.0% rise in tariffs on US$ 250 Bn from the 1st of October’19 to the 15th. In Japan, core machinery orders slowed down less than expected in July. In China, car sales (according to CAAM) slowed down in August -6.9% vs. -4.3% in July. The Chinese government would order to resume the purchase of farm products from state-owned companies.
What we expect for today
Stock markets would open with gains of +0.5% after the goodwill gestures between the US and China, with the most sensitive stocks and sectors, such as mining, basic resources, steel, automobiles and cyclicals, in general, standing out. Currently, S&P futures are up +0.47% (the S&P 500 closed up +0.40% vs. its price at the closing bell in Europe). Volatility in the US fell (VIX 14.61%). The Asian markets that are open are trading with mixed results (Hong Kong -0.12% and Japan +1.08%).
Today we highlight the ECB’s September meeting. In Germany we will learn August’s final inflation, in the euro zone July’s industrial output, in the US August’s inflation and weekly unemployment and in Brazil July’s economic activity index. In debt auctions: Italy (€ 7.75 Bn in bonds due 2022, 2026 and 2046).