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IBERIAN DAILY 15 MAY + 1Q’23 RESULTS. PREVIEWS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: BBVA, COLONIAL, FLUIDRA.

At the end of today’s report, and during the entire results season, we will include a presentation with previews for the 1Q’23 results to be released over the coming days in Spain.

Monetary policy still in the spotlight
With the results season entering the home stretch, stock markets once again looked to central banks following the twelfth consecutive rate hike by the BoE and expectations of rate cuts in the US getting increasingly high following the latest macro data released and the problems with regional banks. The Euro STOXX 50 ended the week with drops of around -0.5%, with the German Dax falling -0.30% and with the IBEX 35 performing better, with gains of +0.95%. The best-performing sectors in the Euro STOXX were Travel & Leisure and Banks, whereas Basic Materials, Real Estate and Insurance ended with the biggest drops on the week. On the macro side, in the UK the 1Q’23 GDP was in line with expectations (+0.1% vs. +0.1% previously), whereas March’s industrial output fell less than expected. In Spain, April’s final inflation data confirmed the preliminary 4.1% YoY. In Mexico, March’s industrial output was worse than expected. In Brazil, April’s inflation rose more than expected. In the US, May’s U-of Michigan consumer confidence fell sharply to 57.7 vs. 63 expected. On the political front, Turkey could hold a second round of voting in the presidential election (28 May), where the result between Erdogan (49.5% of votes) and Kilicdaroglu (45%) is very tight, and would not give a majority to either candidate.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with slight gains, pending the result of the Turkish election, which could bring uncertainty, and the advances made in debt ceiling negotiations in the US. Currently, S&P futures are up +0.11% (the S&P 500 ended up +0.21% vs. the European closing bell). Volatility in the US rose (VIX 15.69). Asian stock markets are mixed (China’s CSI 300 flat, Japan’s Nikkei +0.64%).
Today in the US we will learn May’s Empire manufacturing index and in the euro zone March’s industrial output. Debt auctions: Germany (€ 5 Bn in 12M t-bills).