SECTOR BANCARIO ESPAÑA: SENTENCIA DEL TJUE SOBRE IRPH, FAVORABLE A LA BANCA (ANÃLISIS BANCO SABADELL)
Se confirma por tanto el escenario del “caso por caso†y se aclaran algunos puntos (control de transparencia, sustitución del Ãndice) con una conclusión, en nuestra opinión, favorable a la banca. Además, hay que destacar también que se minimiza el riesgo de demandas colectivas, dado que la verificación de la transparencia se tiene que hacer de forma individual. Teniendo en cuenta además que en las sentencias ya dictadas el c.80% de los veredictos dan la razón a los bancos y que el propio Tribunal Supremo en la sentencia dictada en 2017 también falló a favor de la banca, pensamos que también se limita el riesgo de demandas individuales. Finalmente, se elimina la posibilidad de que los bancos tengan que dotar algún tipo de provisión por este riesgo contingente. Asumimos que los bancos tendrán que seguir haciendo frente a elevados gastos por litigios, tanto por éste como por otro abiertos (multidivisas, gastos hipotecarios, tarjetas revolving…) pero este aspecto ya está incluido en nuestras estimaciones, por lo que no prevemos un impacto financiero (ni positivo ni negativo) por esta sentencia.En la tabla siguiente recogemos nuestra estimación de exposición e impacto en los bancos en cobertura, actualizada con la de cierre de 2019. El mayor riesgo estaba en CABK y BKIA lo que explica el outperformance de ambos valores, que suben hoy un +7% y +5% respectivamente, vs. c.+3% del resto de bancos españoles y del Ibex 35. Aunque, tras el sell off de la última semana es difÃcil aislar el “riesgo IRPH†en cotización el impacto máximo que calculábamos, suponÃa c.7% de la capitalización de CABK y c.5% en el caso de BKIA. Pensamos por tanto que las cotizaciones todavÃa podrÃan tener recorrido positivo de c.+2/+3% para cerrar completamente el gap frente al resto de bancos. Mantenemos a CABK, junto con UNI y SAN como nuestros favoritos en banca española.
Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria is an international financial group, engaged primarily on providing banking services and consumer finance to private individuals and businesses in Spain and Portugal; providing real estate activity in Spain; providing services to international companies and investment banking, capital markets and treasury management services to clients; and providing the banking, insurance and pension businesses in Mexico and the U.S., as well as in South America.
Banco Santander is a holding company, providing a range of financial products. Co.'s products and services include: retail banking business that covers all customer banking businesses; wholesale banking business; as well as asset management and insurance business. Co.'s principal operations are in Spain, the U.K., Portugal, Germany, Italy and Latin America. As of Dec 31 2014, Co.'s total assets amounted to Euro1,266,296,000,000 and total customer deposits amounted to Euro647,627,000,000.
Bankia is a financial institution based in Spain. Co. is primarily engaged in operations in the banking sector. Co.'s business operations are structured into seven areas: Retail Banking, Business Banking, Private Banking, Asset Management and Bancassurance, Capital Markets and Holdings. Co. offers financial products and services to various customer segments, such as individuals, small and medium enterprises, large corporations, as well as public and private institutions. As of Dec 31 2014, Co. had total assets and total customer deposits of Euro233,648,603,000 and Euro106,806,698,000 respectively.
Caixabank is an investment company based in Spain. Co. is involved in investment portfolio management activities across two areas: Services and Financial Business and Insurance. In the services area, Co. provides investment solutions for companies involved in the infrastructure, energy, services and entertainment sectors. In the financial business and insurance area, Co. is engaged in the investments for international banks, insurance and specialist financial services. Co. focuses most of its banking investments in India, China, the U.S., and Central and Eastern Europe with a particular interest in retail banking. Co. is also involved in the disinvestments activities.
Unicaja Banco SA is a Spain-based financial institution (the Bank) engaged in the banking sector. The Bank offers services to individual and business customers. Its products and services range includes current and savings accounts, debit and credit cards, consumer and commercial loans, real estate credit, securities brokerage, funds management, leasing, factoring, pension plans, life and non-life insurance, international trade financing, money transfer, as well as treasury, among others. The Bank operates a number of branches in Spain and Morocco. The Bank is controlled by Fundacion Bancaria Unicaja.
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