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IBERIAN DAILY 02 MAY + 1Q’25 RESULTS. HIGHLIGHTS AND REST OF PREVIEWS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: REDEIA.


At the end of today’s report, and during the entire results season, we will include a presentation with positive and negative results highlights and previews for the 1Q’25 results to be released over the coming days in Spain.

Macroeconomic data drag down stock markets
It was a session of corrections at both sides of the Atlantic, with the US dragged down by poor macroeconomic data (GDP, ADP, PMI) and Europe (particularly the Ibex) by the lack of positive surprises in the earnings campaign . In the STOXX 600, the best performers were defensive sectors such as Telecoms and Media vs. the bigger losses of cyclicals such as Travel&Leisure and Basic Resources. On the macro side, in the euro zone the 1Q’25 GDP climbed more than expected, remaining at 1.2% YoY, as opposed to expectations thanks to the better data released by France and Germany. In the US, the 1Q’25 GDP slowed down unexpectedly due to the sharp increase in imports and to the lower public and private spending. ADP private employment creation came in below expectations. April’s manufacturing ISM fell less than expected whereas weekly jobless claims climbed more than expected. In Japan, the BoJ kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged and March’s unemployment rate rose slightly but unexpectedly. As for tariffs, China would be studying the possibility of opening the door to negotiate tariffs with the US and Japan expects to reach an agreement in June. In US business results, Caterpillar, Meta and McDonald released worse earnings than expected, Eli Lilly, Ebay and Microsoft in line and Amazon made public a disappointing 2Q’25 guidance.
What we expect for today
Stock markets would open with gains >+1.0%, with the better performance of cyclical sectors such as Technology and Basic Resources in view of China’s possible change of stance on tariffs. Currently, S&P futures are up +0.6% (the S&P 500 ended +1.3% higher vs. the European closing bell). Asian markets are rising (China’s CSI 300 is closed, Hang Seng +1.7% and Japan’s Nikkei +1.2%).
Today in the euro zone we will learn the ECB’s minutes, April’s inflation and March’s unemployment rate and in the US non-farm job creation, unemployment rate and April’s wage gains. In US business results, Exxon and Chevron, among others, will release their earnings.


COMPANY NEWS

REDEIA. 1Q’25 Results in line with expectations. No Conference call was held. OVERWEIGHT.
1Q’25 Results were in line with expectations. Thus, the 1Q’25 EBITDA totalled € 320 M (+4.4% vs. 1Q’24 bearing in mind Hispasat’s deconsolidation and the restatement of its FY2024 results vs. +4.7% BS and +5% consensus) and Net Profit € 137.8 M (+4.2% vs. 1Q’24, vs. +2.8% BS and +2% consensus), with a worse financial result vs. 1Q’24. No Conference call was held. The uncertainty about the future possibility of the power blackout could continue to weigh on the share price although we do not foresee a significant impact, opening the door to an opportunity for further investment and profitability in transport.

1Q’25 Results highlights and rest of previews
Of the stocks releasing their earnings over the coming days, today on the positive side we highlight CAF (releasing on 08/05), where we foresee a good quarter with strong commercial activity that will result in robust order intake (€ 1.07 Bn BS(e), +140% vs. 1Q’24 and around 1x 1Q’25 sales), leaving the order backlog at € 14.65 Bn, 3.2x sales. Furthermore, the performance of the P&L statement would suggest robust and appealing growth (>double-digit in EBIT), in line with the annual estimates.