IBERIAN DAILY 12 SEPTEMBER (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)
NEWS SUMMARY: CAF, OHLA, TALGO.Stock markets continue to recover ahead of ECB
European stock markets closed with gains ahead of the ECB meeting and despite a new rise in debt curves. In the Euro STOXX, the best-performing sectors were Real Estate and Retail, whereas Technology and Industrials were among the few in the red. On the macro side, the EC’s summer forecasts saw a -0.3pp cut to GDP’23-24 growth in the euro zone to 0.8% and 1.3% in view of the weakness, especially in the German economy (-0.4% in 2023 vs. 0.2% previous and 1.1% for 2024 vs. 1.4% previous). Standing out on the positive side is Spain, with 2.2% in 2023 (+0.3pp) and a slight -0.1pp cut in 2024 to 1.9%. As for inflation, the EC still expects to be far from the ECB’s targets for the coming years, at 5.6% in 2023 (-0.2pp) and at 2.9% in 2024 (+0.1pp). In the US, the NY Fed household survey showed greater concern for the financial situation and job loss, whereas 3Y inflation expectations fell to 2.79% from the previous 2.91%. In Mexico, July’s industrial output rose more than expected. In international politics, the talks between Joe Biden and Xi Jinping showed some progress in improving relations between the two global powers. Separately, in China total financing rose much more than expected in August, as did new loans. Also, two large cities in the country (Jinan and Qingdao) lifted restrictions on housing purchases in order to reactivate real estate demand.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with gains of up to +0.3%. Currently, S&P futures are down -0.13% (the S&P 500 ended up +0.37% vs. the European closing bell).). Volatility in the US fell (VIX 13.80). Asian stock markets are mixed (China’s CSI 300 -0.22%, Japan’s Nikkei +0.77%).
Today in the UK we will learn July’s unemployment rate, in Spain August’s inflation, in Germany September’s ZEW and in Brazil August’s inflation. Debt auctions: Spain (€ 2.5 Bn in 3M and 9M t-bills) and Germany (€ 5.5 Bn in bonds due 2025).
Obrascon Huarte Lain is an international concession and construction groups based in Spain. Co. maintains significant operations in 30 countries across all five continents. Co. is engaged in hospital and railway construction, transport infrastructure concessions, oil and gas, energy, solids handling and fire protection systems and international contracts. Co.'s operations are organized along four divisions: OHL Concesiones, OHL Construccion, OHL Industrial y OHL Desarrollos. Co. is also engaged in real state project developments of mixed use managed by the international hotel chains.
Talgo is engaged in designing, manufacturing, repairing and maintaining the railway rolling stock, as well as the manufacturing, assembling, repairing and maintaining the engines, machinery and parts of the railway systems. Co. has an industrial presence in seven countries: Spain, Germany, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Russia, Saudi Arabia and U.S.A. Co. has an active fleet in Europe, Asia and North America that comprises of 94 high-speed trains and more than 1,400 Talgo tilting passenger cars. Also, Co. purchases, redesigns, constructs, leases and sells all types of real estate.
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