EUR 100.00 For Business Accounts Only

IBERIAN DAILY 15 JULY (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: CAF, ELECTRICITY SECTOR, IBERDROLA.

The tariff risk remains, and stock markets continue to price it in
European stock markets reeled in the initial losses following Trump’s threat of a 30% tariff on the EU, closing with slight losses and with the IBEX even in positive numbers. However, in the STOXX 600, most sectors (12/20) posted losses, led by those most exposed to tariffs, such as Autos and Basic Materials, whereas Banks and defensive sectors like Household Goods ended with the biggest gains. On the macro side, in China the 2Q’25 GDP grew more than expected thanks to the external sector, while June’s industrial output beat growth expectations and retail sales slowed much more than expected. As for tariffs, the EU is finalising the second list of measures against Trump’s tariffs for a total of € 72 Bn (including Autos and Boeing), although it will maintain the postponement of possible countermeasures until 01 August against a backdrop of a lack of consensus among European leaders (Macron pushing for credible countermeasures and Merz appealing for a diplomatic solution). Separately, Trump announced 100% tariffs on Russia if Putin does not end the war against Ukraine.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with gains of around +0.3%, with consumption companies exposed to China underperforming to some extent following the GDP data that continues underscoring weakness in consumption and in residential investment. Currently, S&P futures are up +0.25% (the S&P 500 ended up +0.28% vs. the European closing bell). Asian markets are mixed (China’s CSI 300 -0.26% and Japan’s Nikkei +0.21%).
Today in Spain we will learn June’s inflation, in Germany July’s ZEW index, in the euro zone May’s industrial output and in the US June’s inflation and July’s Empire manufacturing index.