CAIXABANK: € 9 BN FOR SHAREHOLDERS IS POSSIBLE! (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)
€ 9 Bn for shareholders is possible! New T.P. of € 4.70/sh. BUYWe estimate € 8.3 Bn through 2024, -8% below CABK’s estimate, due to the tax on the banking sector, but € 9 Bn (~10% yield) cannot be ruled out thanks to the excess provisions (€ 1.8 Bn) and the fact that the company could sell € 4 Bn of assets with 60% coverage (56% average’14-24), generating around +20bps of FL CET1 (€ 450 M). We raise Net Profit’22-24e by an average of around +11% (+6% average vs. consensus). The share price is factoring in Net Profit’24 around -30% below our estimate, equivalent to 1.1% CoR (above the maximum guidance range during Covid-19) or 14% CoE (vs. 9.5% BS(e)), both readings unjustified due to the bank’s credit quality.
Caixabank is an investment company based in Spain. Co. is involved in investment portfolio management activities across two areas: Services and Financial Business and Insurance. In the services area, Co. provides investment solutions for companies involved in the infrastructure, energy, services and entertainment sectors. In the financial business and insurance area, Co. is engaged in the investments for international banks, insurance and specialist financial services. Co. focuses most of its banking investments in India, China, the U.S., and Central and Eastern Europe with a particular interest in retail banking. Co. is also involved in the disinvestments activities.
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