EUR 100.00 For Business Accounts Only

IBERIAN DAILY 17 JANUARY (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: BANKING SECTOR, CAIXABANK, ENAGAS, IBERDROLA, LAR ESPAÑA, REPSOL.

Stock markets continued to see some joy
With the exception of the Ibex, the rally in European stock markets continued without the US references (closed for holiday), fuelled by the improvement in inflation, growth and earnings expectations. In the Euro STOXX, Real Estate and Media led gains vs. the drops of Travel&Leisure and Basic Resources, among the few sectors ending in negative territory. On the macro side, in the euro zone, in its first meeting the Eurogroup was optimistic about the EU’s resistance to the impact from the energy crisis and the Ukraine war, and it sees encouraging progress that will help mitigate the consequences of the crisis and avoid a deep recession. Meanwhile, from the ECB both Lane and Pablo H. de Cos (BpS) warned that rates must still rise significantly higher. In China, the 4Q’22 GDP slowed less than expected (2.9% YoY vs. previous 3.9% and 1.6% expected) thanks to the solid performance of investments in infrastructure and with consumption shrinking less than expected (December’s retail sales fell -1.8% YoY vs. -9.0% expected and -5.9% previously). Separately, the Chinese population fell in 2022 for the first time in 60 years, which could be one of the most important demographical changes for global inflation.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with drops of around -0.3%, dragged down by US futures and growth data in China. Currently, S&P futures are down -0.1% (the S&P 500 was closed for holiday). Asian markets are mixed (China’s CSI 300 -0.1% and Japan’s Nikkei +1.2%).
Today in the UK we will learn November’s unemployment rate, in Germany December’s final inflation and January’s ZEW, and in the US January’s manufacturing Empire index. In US Results Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and United Airlines, among others, will release their earnings. As for auctions, Germany will issue € 5 Bn in bonds due 2028 and Spain € 2.5 Bn in 3 & 9M T-bills.