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IBERIAN DAILY 30 JANUARY + 4Q’24 RESULTS. PREVIEWS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: CAIXABANK, OHLA.

At the end of today’s report, and during the entire results season, we will include a presentation with positive and negative results highlights and previews for the 4Q’24 results to be released over the coming days in Spain.

Results spur buying ahead of Fed
Except for the slight drop in the CAC, European stock markets posted gains ahead of the Fed meeting, which kept rates in the range of 4.25%-4.50%, as expected. In the STOXX 600, the gains were led by Technology and Telecoms, whereas Food and Consumer Goods (dragged down by the poor results from LVMH) presented the biggest losses. On the macro side, in Spain the 4Q’24 GDP rose more than expected to 0.8% QoQ and closed our 2024 with a gain of 3.2%. In the euro zone, the M3 slowed its growth more than expected in December, but corporate and consumer loans sped up their YoY increases. In France, the 4Q’24 GDP slowed down unexpectedly. In the US few changes in the Fed’s communiqué (admitting greater job dynamism and relatively high inflation), whereas J. Powell insisted again on a slow adjustment of the monetary policy. In US business results, T-Mobile Meta (Facebook), Microsoft beat expectations and Tesla released disappointing results.
What we expect for today
Stock markets would open with gains of around +0.3%, with growth still performing well and awaiting the expected rate cut from the ECB. Currently, S&P futures are up +0.30% (the S&P 500 ended -0.07% lower vs. the European closing bell). Asian markets are rising (China’s CSI 300 closed and Japan’s Nikkei +0.19%).
Today in Spain we will learn January’s preliminary inflation, in the euro zone the ECB will meet and we will learn January’s economic sentiment index and the 4Q’24 GDP (in Germany as well) and in the US the 4Q’24 GDP, weekly jobless claims and December’s pending home sales. In US business results, Caterpillar, Blackstone, Mastercard and Apple, among others, will release their earnings.


COMPANY NEWS

CAIXABANK: Better 4Q’24 results but without any impact due to unsurprising 2025 guidance. OVERWEIGHT.
4Q’24 results above expectations thanks to service revenues (+4% vs. expectations) and lower provisions (-6% vs. expectations/27bps COR). ROTE came in at 18.1% and the NPL ratio at 2.6% (vs. 2.7% in 9M’24). CET1 improves by 17bps vs. 9M’24 (up to 12.2%). For 2025 CABK foresees: (i) mid single-digit drop in NII (vs.- 6% BS(e) and -5% consensus); (ii) low single/mid digit growth in Services revenues (vs. +0% BS(e) and +3% consensus); (iii) +5% rise in costs (vs. +3% BS(e) and +7% consensus); (iv) COR