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IBERIAN DAILY 30 JANUARY + 4Q’25 RESULTS. PREVIEWS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: CAIXABANK, GLOBAL DOMINION, INDRA.

At the end of today’s report, and during the entire results season, we will include a presentation with positive and negative results highlights and previews for the 4Q’25 results to be released over the coming days in Spain.

Euro STOXX drops below 5,900
European stock markets fell, with the market highly conditioned by results releases. In the STOXX 600, the gains were led by Energy (Brent above 70 d/b) and Food, whereas Technology (in view of SAP’s rout) and Media ended with the biggest corrections. On the macro side, in Spain December’s retail sales fell to 2.9%. In the euro zone, December’s M3 slowed more than expected. In the US, weekly jobless claims fell slightly more than expected, although the previous figure was raised. The trade deficit increased in November to a 34-year high, and November’s factory orders rose more than expected. In Japan, Tokyo inflation for January slowed more than expected, December’s industrial output contracted slightly less than expected, but retail sales contracted unexpectedly. On the geopolitical front, Trump raised tensions with Iran, while the EU approved new sanctions against the country due to the repression of protests. Additionally, Trump threatened to raise tariffs on countries exporting oil to Cuba. In national politics, Trump and the Democrat Senate majority leader, Chuck Schumer, would be negotiating to avoid a shutdown. In the race for Fed governor, K. Warsh is gaining momentum and could be officially named today. In US business results, Caterpillar, Blackstone and Mastercard beat expectations, while Nasdaq, Visa and Apple were more in line.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with gains in a volatile session due to the results calendar. Currently, S&P futures are down -0.63% (the S&P 500 ended +1.12% higher vs. the European closing bell). Asian markets are mixed (China’s CSI 300 -0.80%, Japan’s Nikkei +0.04% and South Korea’s Kospi +0.62%).
Today in Germany we will learn December’s import prices, January’s number of unemployed and January’s inflation, in Spain the 4Q’25 GDP and January’s inflation, in the euro zone December’s unemployment rate, in Brazil December’s unemployment rate, in Mexico the 4Q’25 GDP and in the US January’s Chicago PMI. In 4Q’25 US business results, Verizon, American Express, Colgate-Palmolive, Exxon Mobile and Chevron, among others, will release their earnings.


COMPANY NEWS

CAIXABANK, UNDERWEIGHT
The 4Q’25 Results came in slightly above expectations in revenues and below in costs (-0.4% vs. expectations) and provisions (-3%), exceeding Net Profit by +6%. The bank reached a 17.5% ROTE and the NPL ratio fell to 2.07% vs. 2.27% in 3Q’25 with 22bps of COR vs. 24 in 3Q’25. CET1 stood at 12.56% vs. 12.44% as of September’25. For 2026 CABK has given a guidance very much in line in NII, slightly better in service revenues and better in costs and provisions, but this is not passed on to ROTE, where the bank expects a level of ~18% (in line with our estimate and the consensus). The company has also updated its 2025-27 long-term targets, especially improving NII’27 and continuing with the cuts to costs and CoR. As opposed to 2026, for 2027 the company does pass these improved expectations on to ROTE, where it expects ~20% (vs. previous target of 16% and 18% BS(e) and 18.2% consensus).
Although the stock is expensive, we expect a slightly positive reaction. CABK has reached these results with a performance very much in line with its sector (+20% in three months), but trading with a +12%/+14% premium vs. domestic Spanish banks: 2.2x P/TE’26 for a ROTE’26 of 18% (vs. 2x for Bankinter with a similar ROTE’26).