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INFORME DIARIO 23 ABRIL (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

COMPAÑÍAS QUE APARECEN EN EL INFORME. ESPAÑA: CELLNEX, EUSKALTEL, GRUPO CATALANA OCCIDENTE, METROVACESA, PRISA, SECTOR BANCOS ESPAÑA, SECTOR SEGUROS. EUROPA: DAIMLER.

ESPAÑA

EUSKALTEL. Rdos. en línea, bien en costes y caja, y confirman poco impacto del COvid-19. Cambiamos a COMPRAR.
El EBITDA 1T’20 asciende a 87,7 M euros (+8,1% vs +6,3% BS(e)) con un margen del 51,1% (vs 47,3% en 1T’19) principalmente gracias a las medidas de eficiencia. Confirman guidance'20 y mantienen el dividendo'19 (0,31 euros/acc., 4,8% yield) del que queda un pago de 0,17 euros/acc en julio'20 (2,6% yield) ya anunciado previamente. Dada la caída del valor desde máximos de febrero justo antes del Covid-19 (-25% en absoluto) y teniendo en cuenta la estabilidad del top line, los mejores datos de deuda y las mejoras de EBITDA, así como que no estimamos impacto del Covid-19 (revisiones muy limitadas en nuestro escenario de recuperación en “V”; del c.–5% en EBITDA 20-22e y de c.–9% en P.O. en el “U”) cambiamos recomendación a COMPRAR, con un potencial del +34,3% hasta nuestro P.O. de 8,5 euros/acc.

GRUPO CATALANA OCCIDENTE. Recorta el dividendo complementario’19 un -50% vs al anunciado. COMPRAR
La Compañía anunció el recorte de un -50% del DPA complementario’19 hasta los 0,20285 euros/acc. (yield del pago 1,1%) que pagará el 13/05. La decisión se enmarca con las Directrices de la EIOPA de marzo’20 y que ahora respalda la DGSFP para proteger a los asegurados en la actual pandemia. Así, el total DPA’19 total queda en 0,67925 euros/acc. (yield 3,7%; -15,3% vs 2018) y vs 0,8821 euros/acc. pre-anunciado (en línea con nuestra estimación). Nosotros esperábamos que GCO mantuviera el DPA dado cuenta con un excedente relevante de fondos propios y cuenta con elevadas plusvalías latentes de cartera, es decir no vemos problemas de S-II donde GCO tiene una cómoda posición (213% actual) y que en un escenario de máximo estrés se quedaría en referencias de c. 180%. Por el momento, para 2020 mantenemos nuestro dividendo en base a un pay-out del 30% “recurrente” en línea con el resto del sector. Es decir mantenemos el pay-out habitual del 50% en los casos de Munich Re y Allianz.


EUROPA

DAIMLER. Prepublica cifras de EBIT 1T’20 y anuncia guidance’20. COMPRAR
Ha prepublicado sus cifras de EBIT 1T’20 en línea con lo previsto (-69% vs -72% BS(e) y -69% consenso) que a falta de conocer sus ventas (serán anunciadas el 29/04 en su publicación completa) situaría el margen EBIT de alrededor del 2% (vs 1,9% BS(e) y 2,1% consenso), lo que confirmaría su mensaje de que en 1T estarían en terreno positivo. Por otra parte, anuncia un guidance’20 donde prevén que las Ventas y el EBIT se sitúen por debajo de lo visto en 2019, lo que no suponen ninguna novedad. Con todo, ante la poca visibilidad actual pensamos que es razonable asumir un impacto en EBIT’20e de alrededor -60% frente a nuestra estimación actual (–30% vs 2019), que en valoración tendría un impacto limitado inferior al –15/-20% si la recuperación es en “V”, dejando el P.O. en 40,0 euros/acc. (+43% de potencial). Si la recuperación es en “U” nuestro P.O. se iría a niveles de 32 euros/acc. (+15% de potencial). No esperamos un impacto relevante tras esta publicación pese a que el valor le pierde al ES50 un -8,4% desde el inicio de la crisis del Covid-19.
Underlyings
Air Liquide SA

L'Air Liquide is engaged in the market of gases for industry, health and the environment. Oxygen, nitrogen, hydrogen, and rare gases make up Co.'s core activities. Co. structures its activities in three segments: Gas and Services, Engineering and Technology, and Other activities. The Gas and Services segment comprises four business lines: Industrial Merchant, Large Industries, Healthcare and Electronics; Engineering and Technology designs, develops and builds industrial gas production plants for Co. and third parties; and the Other Activities segment develops welding and cutting edge technologies, and markets deep-sea diving and swimming equipment to professionals and privates individuals.

Cellnex Telecom S.A.

Cellnex Telecom SA is a Spain-based company engaged in the wireless telecommunications (telecom) business. Its activities are divided into three segments: Broadcasting infrastructure, Telecom site rental, as well as Network services and other. The Broadcasting infrastructure division comprises distribution and transmission of television (TV) and frequency modulation (FM) radio signals, operation and maintenance (O&M) of radio broadcasting network, as well as over-the-top (OTT) radio services, among others. The Telecom site rental division provides access to wireless infrastructure, primarily through infrastructure hosting and telecom equipment co-location, mainly for mobile network operators and other wireless and broadband telecom network operators. The Network services and other division offers connectivity services for a variety of telecom operators and radio communication, among others. The Company also develops 5th generation mobile networks (5G) through Alticom BV.

Daimler AG

Daimler provides a range of transportation products, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles, and also financial services. Co. operates in five segments. Mercedes-Benz Cars sells passenger cars and off-road vehicles under the Mercedes-Benz brand and small cars under the smart brand. The Daimler Trucks distributes its trucks (Mercedes-Benz, Freightliner, FUSO, Western Star, Thomas Built Buses and BharatBenz). The vans of the Mercedes-Benz Vans segment are sold under the brand name Mercedes-Benz and Freightliner. Daimler Buses sells completely built-up buses (Mercedes-Benz and Setra). The Daimler Financial Services division supports sales of Co.'s automotive brands.

Enersis SA (ADR)

Eni S.p.A.

Eni is engaged in the oil and gas exploration and production, gas marketing operations, management of gas infrastructures, power generation, petrochemicals, oil field services and engineering industries. Co.'s operations are divided into three segments; Exploration and Production (oil and natural gas exploration and field development and production, as well as LNG operations), Gas and Power (supply, trading and marketing of gas and electricity, managing gas infrastructures for transport, distribution, storage, re-gasification, and LNG supply and marketing), and Refining and Marketing (supply of crude oil, refining and marketing of refined products). Co. maintains operations in 73 countries.

Euskaltel SA

Euskaltel SA is a Spain-based company engaged in the provision of integrated telecommunication services. The Company's activities are divided into three segments: Residential, Business, as well as Wholesale and Other. The Residential segment provides fixed and mobile telecommunication services, broadband and wireless Internet, as well as digital television (TV) as a single service and in packages. The Business division primarily offers fixed and mobile telephony, as well as Internet access for enterprises. The Wholesale and Other area serves wholesale customers and is responsible for the delivery of communication services, such as infrastructure leasing, information technology (IT) outsourcing, as well as sell of installation material and electronics. The Company operates in the Basque Country, Spain.

Grupo Catalana Occidente S.A.

Grupo Catalana Occidente is an insurance group based in Spain. Co. is engaged in insurance and reinsurance activities, including commercial, life, disability, and automobile insurance. Co. is also engaged in the sale of annuities and pension funds. Co.'s operations are organized along two businesses: Traditional business (insurance) and Credit Insurance business. Co.'s main markets are located in Spain, Germany, United Kingdom, France and the Netherlands. Co. maintains a presence in more than 40 countries.

Grupo Prisa (PRS SM)

Metrovacesa SA

Metrovacesa SA, formerly Metrovacesa Suelo y Promocion SA, is a Spain-based real estate developer. The Company specializes in construction and sale of sustainable housing, both single-family and multi-family residential properties. Its activities also include promotion, urbanization and parceling of real estate in general, as well as real estate management for own benefit or on behalf of third parties. Its asset portfolio includes more than 6 million square meters of building land across Spain, as well as already developed properties in cities, such as Malaga, Almeria, Cordoba, Barcelona and Madrid, among others.

Sanofi

Sanofi is an integrated, global healthcare company focused on patient needs and engaged in the research, development, manufacture and marketing of healthcare products. Two segments make up Co.'s business: Pharmaceuticals and Vaccines. The Pharmaceuticals segment covers research, development, production and marketing of medicines, consisting of flagship products, plus a broad range of prescription medicines, generic medicines, and consumer health products. The Vaccines segment includes research, development, production and marketing of vaccines in five areas: pediatric vaccines, influenza vaccines, adult and adolescent booster vaccines, meningitis vaccines, and travel and endemic vaccines.

UNILEVER N.V.

Unilever is engaged in the supply of consumer goods in foods, household care and personal products. Co.'s activities are carried out through four categories: Personal Care, sales of skin care and hair care products, deodorants and oral care products; Home Care, sales of home care products, such as powders, liquids and capsules, soap bars and a range of cleaning products; Foods, sales of soups, bouillons, sauces, snacks, mayonnaise, salad dressings, margarines and spreads; and Refreshment, sales of ice cream and tea-based beverages. Co.'s products are sold in over 190 countries around the world.

VINCI SA

Vinci is engaged in building, civil engineering and facilities management. Through its subsidiaries, Co. is engaged in five divisions comprising of: the Building division which provides retail solutions including construction and fit-out in both the retail and commercial sectors; the Civil Engineering division; the Air division which provides program management, engineering and construction services to customers with airport infrastructure requirements; the Technology division; and the VINCI Facilities division which provides facilities management, repair and maintenance and small works in both the private and public sectors.

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