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At the end of today’s report, and during the entire results season, we will include a presentation with positive and negative results highlights and previews for the 1Q’25 results to be released over the coming days in Spain.
US employment data spurs markets
It was a week of gains on both sides of the Atlantic in view of the waning tariff risk and a results season that has acted as a support. On the macro side, in the euro zone April’s preliminary general and core inflation rose more than expected, whereas the manufacturing PMI was raised (in Spain it fell from 49.5 to 48.1). In the US, non-farm employment beat expectations, with the unemployment rate stable at 4.2% and salary gains slowing slightly more than expected. As for tariffs, D. Trump repeated that he will cut tariffs to China at some point whereas negotiations with Japan are on a standstill given the US rejection to withdraw tariffs on metals and autos. On another note, OPEC+ decided last weekend to speed up the output increases to recover the 2.2 M b/d in Nov’25 (vs. Sep’26 expected last December) with an increase of 411,000 barrels over the next two months. In US business results, Exxon and Chevron beat expectations.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with slight gains that should shrink and end with profit taking of more than -0.1%. Currently, S&P futures are down -0.7% (the S&P 500 ended +0.1% higher vs. the European closing bell). Asian markets are closed.
Today in the euro zone we will learn May’s Sentix index and in the US April’s non-manufacturing ISM. In US business results, Palantir, Realty Income, Berkshire Hathaway and Ford, among others, will release their earnings.
COMPANY NEWS
CIE AUTOMOTIVE. We see value in the middle of the storm. OVERWEIGHT.
The share price has seen a valuation derating due to doubts about growth in the automotive industry, trading at 6x EV/EBITDA’25e and 9x P/E’25e vs. the historical average of 8x and 13x, respectively. We believe that CIE should fare better than what the market could be pricing in and even though we cut our T.P. by -12% to € 29.61/sh. (+27% upside), we reiterate our OVERWEIGHT recommendation as we believe that after the derating outlined the stock is already pricing in a sufficiently negative scenario.
GREENING
On Friday GGR released very poor FY2024 results, especially in generation due to (i) the drop in M&A moves closed in 2024 as a result of non-payment (among them Amperiosol), which meant capital gains being lost and the elimination of the construction margin and (ii) the delay until 2025 of the positive accounting of several portfolio sales. GGR would have reached € 11.7 M of adjusted EBITDA’24 (+15% vs. 2023, -43% BS(e)) and reported EBITDA (removing the previous impacts) € -2.69 M. Added to these impacts is the capital losses (€ -4.1 M) in some projects. With all this in mind, Net Profit’24 came in at € -13.2 M (vs. € +3.5 M in 2023). Despite all this, GGR continues to reiterate the targets from its 2024-26e Strategic Plan.
GGR also announced an agreement to carry out a capital increase at some point in 2025 with the Mexican company Latina Desarrollos Energéticos, S.A., of up to € 45 M (24% of GGR’2 market cap) at € 4.90/sh. (-3% vs. closing price of 30/04). The capital increase will be carried out in three parts (the last two subject to certain obligations).
On Friday when the capital increase was announced and the results released, the stock fell -0.4%. Following these results we will lower our T.P. range (from the previous 6.93-9.86) to be more conservative with M&A management, and this with the COD&UC targets through 2026e. There will be a conference call at 12:30 (CET) in which we expect more details to be given on financing needs following the latest agreements, the situation with the covenants and the conditions of the capital increase. All eyes will also be on whether the targets of the current 2024-26e Strategic Plan are maintained, as well as the comments made by the auditor in its report.
IBERIAN DAILY 05 MAY + 1Q’25 RESULTS. HIGHLIGHTS AND REST OF PREVIEWS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)
NEWS SUMMARY: CIE AUTOMOTIVE, GREENING.At the end of today’s report, and during the entire results season, we will include a presentation with positive and negative results highlights and previews for the 1Q’25 results to be released over the coming days in Spain.
US employment data spurs markets
It was a week of gains on both sides of the Atlantic in view of the waning tariff risk and a results season that has acted as a support. On the macro side, in the euro zone April’s preliminary general and core inflation rose more than expected, whereas the manufacturing PMI was raised (in Spain it fell from 49.5 to 48.1). In the US, non-farm employment beat expectations, with the unemployment rate stable at 4.2% and salary gains slowing slightly more than expected. As for tariffs, D. Trump repeated that he will cut tariffs to China at some point whereas negotiations with Japan are on a standstill given the US rejection to withdraw tariffs on metals and autos. On another note, OPEC+ decided last weekend to speed up the output increases to recover the 2.2 M b/d in Nov’25 (vs. Sep’26 expected last December) with an increase of 411,000 barrels over the next two months. In US business results, Exxon and Chevron beat expectations.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with slight gains that should shrink and end with profit taking of more than -0.1%. Currently, S&P futures are down -0.7% (the S&P 500 ended +0.1% higher vs. the European closing bell). Asian markets are closed.
Today in the euro zone we will learn May’s Sentix index and in the US April’s non-manufacturing ISM. In US business results, Palantir, Realty Income, Berkshire Hathaway and Ford, among others, will release their earnings.
COMPANY NEWS
CIE AUTOMOTIVE. We see value in the middle of the storm. OVERWEIGHT.
The share price has seen a valuation derating due to doubts about growth in the automotive industry, trading at 6x EV/EBITDA’25e and 9x P/E’25e vs. the historical average of 8x and 13x, respectively. We believe that CIE should fare better than what the market could be pricing in and even though we cut our T.P. by -12% to € 29.61/sh. (+27% upside), we reiterate our OVERWEIGHT recommendation as we believe that after the derating outlined the stock is already pricing in a sufficiently negative scenario.
GREENING
On Friday GGR released very poor FY2024 results, especially in generation due to (i) the drop in M&A moves closed in 2024 as a result of non-payment (among them Amperiosol), which meant capital gains being lost and the elimination of the construction margin and (ii) the delay until 2025 of the positive accounting of several portfolio sales. GGR would have reached € 11.7 M of adjusted EBITDA’24 (+15% vs. 2023, -43% BS(e)) and reported EBITDA (removing the previous impacts) € -2.69 M. Added to these impacts is the capital losses (€ -4.1 M) in some projects. With all this in mind, Net Profit’24 came in at € -13.2 M (vs. € +3.5 M in 2023). Despite all this, GGR continues to reiterate the targets from its 2024-26e Strategic Plan.
GGR also announced an agreement to carry out a capital increase at some point in 2025 with the Mexican company Latina Desarrollos Energéticos, S.A., of up to € 45 M (24% of GGR’2 market cap) at € 4.90/sh. (-3% vs. closing price of 30/04). The capital increase will be carried out in three parts (the last two subject to certain obligations).
On Friday when the capital increase was announced and the results released, the stock fell -0.4%. Following these results we will lower our T.P. range (from the previous 6.93-9.86) to be more conservative with M&A management, and this with the COD&UC targets through 2026e. There will be a conference call at 12:30 (CET) in which we expect more details to be given on financing needs following the latest agreements, the situation with the covenants and the conditions of the capital increase. All eyes will also be on whether the targets of the current 2024-26e Strategic Plan are maintained, as well as the comments made by the auditor in its report.
Underlyings
CIE Automotive S.A.
CIE Automotive is the parent company of an industrial group formed by several companies that are engaged in the design, manufacture and sale of automobile component and sub-units on the world market. In addition, Co. is also engaged in the bio-fuels business which is in the initial stages of development and is made up of various companies devoted to the production and distribution of bio-fuels.
GREENING
Provider
Sabadell
Research Department
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